04 April 2009

The polls have moved

The expected YouGov poll shows a small swing to Labour.  The Tory lead has been cut to 7%, which is not enough for a majority.  As usual Anthony Wells provides the best analysis.

There is a late entry to the Sunday line up as Boulton and Co report.

At close of play yesterday, I didn't have anyone from the government. At 6pm I made one last weary call to Downing Street and was told that I was 'going to be alright'.

And on this, they were not wrong. Adam Boulton will be talking recession, MPs expenses and Barack Obama with none other but Gordon Brown. He'll be telling Adam why he's not thinking about next year's general election.

This implies the interview has been pre-recorded (Brown is at the EU-US summit on Sunday) but the key will be to watch Brown’s body language when he talks about the election.

One poll is not enough.  There is another on Tuesday.  As Wells says:

Will it be a brief blip on the back of positive publicity that rapidly vanishes again, or will it change the media coverage and perceptions of Labour enough to be the springboard for a wider and longer recovery? Time will tell.

If the polls continue the trend back to Labour and the margin is not enough to give the Tories a majority, what will Brown do?

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  1. Howard he'll stay on until the last minute. The man knows he's the worst PM for generations and why should he call a halt unless it's necessary.

  2. You may be right but I am not convinced that he will hang on until the last minute. If the polls continue to narrow, the temptation to go early will be hard to resist as I have been arguing. Time will tell.

  3. OK Howard, I'll put a £5 on my thoughts.