Onwards to June

So we had a rogue ICM poll last night.  MORI’s monthly political monitor is out:

CON 41%(-1), LAB 28%(-5), LDEM 22%(+8)

Anthony Wells comments:

Any polls showing a party moving by 8 points deserves some degree of scepticism, though of course, the broad trend here - a further slump in labour support with people moving over to the Lib Dems is the same as in the Marketing Sciences poll, though obviously not to the same scale.

If the Lib Dems move any closer to Labour, the comrades will really start to panic.  We now have three polls showing that the Tories will have an overall majority.  It should not be forgotten that the opinion polls have consistently tended to understate the level of Tory support at an election.

If there is no Labour bounce once the small print of the budget is analysed, Brown will limp into June with no cards left to play.