18 April 2009

The Party’s over - Part 2

A 2nd poll is out.  Anthony Wells reports:

CON 45%, LAB 26% - Lib Dems to be confirmed

His comments are worth noting:

It has been 6 months since the last BPIX poll was published, so changes can’t tell us much about reaction to the email smear scandal alone (Tim Montgomerie on ConHome is comparing it to YouGov’s last poll - you shouldn’t, my understanding is they use different weighting.)

There is normally some scepticism regarding BPIX polls because their methodology isn’t open. Their polls are weighted by past vote, but to what shares we don’t know. However, in the past their figures have been broadly in line with other companies, albeit, towards the more “Tory friendly” end of the scale. This one appears roughly in line with Marketing Sciences - the Tory score isn’t too different and they too show Labour being pushed down into the mid-twenties.

So the trend continues with Labour on 26%.

Sunday Bloody Sunday for Brown is about to commence.

UPDATE: There will be an ICM poll for the Guardian on Tuesday, the day before the budget.

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