07 April 2009

Brown's fate will be decided in June

As I have been discussing, Brown is desperate to change the political weather and give himself the opportunity of an early poll.  Labour can play the long game but Brown cannot.  He is unpopular in the country and voters have stopped listening.  A very dangerous position for a politician.

There are two events that will finally decide Brown’s fate.  The budget and the June elections. I suggest that Brown knows this, hence his refusal to close off an early election in his interview on Sunday.  It is only when mid-June is reached that a judgement can be taken on whether Brown can survive.

If the new narrative doesn't work; if the budget flops politically; if the June elections are bad for Brown; and if the opinion polls still continue to show a consistent Tory double digit lead, then Brown’s days are numbered.

Whether Labour has the willpower to remove Brown remains to be seen.

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1 comment:

  1. If no other Labour politician could have a substantially better chance of winning, why would one of them want to replace Brown before the election? Surely the situation has remained the same since he lost his nerve about calling an election? It looks as if he will be condemmned to take the blame for losing the next election, then some new group can displace him and create a Newer-New-Labour.