Having suggested that Brown left himself exposed on his proposals for voting reform at PMQs, Iain Dale has picked up some useful intelligence:
I hear Labour whips are very worried about losing Tuesday's vote on changing the voting system to the Alternative Vote system. With a majority of more than 60, they ought to win the vote comfortably, but doubts are being expressed about how a significant number of Labour MPs will vote. Very few are AV enthusiasts and there are plenty who reject any hint of any kind of electoral reform. Others, especially those who are standing down, may well just decide not to bother turning up.
In addition, the LibDems have published their own amendment to the motion. They hate AV. They don't regard it as in any way proportional. It is therefore likely they will abstain, but if their amendment is treated with contempt, they could join the Tories in the no lobby. The Tories are on a three line whip, with dire warnings being issued to those who think they might have an evening off.
Brown does have his little ways in persuading Labour backbenchers to back him, but if the vote is lost next Tuesday, what happens then? Can he survive having suffered a defeat on a major plank of his election strategy?
We will know the answers soon enough. Maybe before the vote takes place.
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I have a cunning plan, so cunning that you could pin a tail on it and call it a Panda.
ReplyDeleteBrown looses the AV vote, resigns and some face takes over as interim PM until May then they go down in a very close near hung election.
Cue a new Leader in July and the Tories deep in the economic doo doo that Brown has left. Swinging cuts everywhere and big resentment from the 30% core Stella and Benefits Labour voters.
Tories lose confidence vote within 18 months and Labour get back in? Brown as Chancellor mark II
Brown is mad enough to consider that as a result