13 February 2010

A March poll: Could it still happen?

There is a possibility that Peter Oborne may receive a two letter answer to the question he poses today:

Is Brown about to call a snap election?

While we wait, this what Oborne has to say:

For a long time now, Downing Street has pencilled in the countdown: the Budget for March 24, just ahead of the Easter holiday, with the launch of the election campaign proper at the start of April and the election to be held on Thursday, May 6.

However, well-placed advisers inside Downing Street are now challenging that scenario.

They want the Budget to be cancelled, with Chancellor Alistair Darling issuing a less formal financial statement which would form part of the Labour manifesto and which he would promise to implement in full if Labour wins the general election. 

If those advocating an early election win the argument, expect it to be called in two weeks' time and to be held on March 25.

We have danced about this one before and concluded that Labour’s share of the vote is not good enough for Brown to consider going early.

However, as the date of the budget has yet to be announced, the rumours on the election date will continue. These will become more intense during the next week or so, especially if, following that interview, Labour do get a short-term boost in the polls.

One other small matter.

It will not have escaped the attention of Labour’s election winning machine that if there is to be a substantial movement in the polls, this will not happen until the election campaign starts.

Maybe that is what is exercising the tactical mind of Our Dear Leader?

Yes, Brown needs a miracle, but maybe he will finally show that bit of courage he is forever banging on about.

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1 comment:

  1. Maybe a "go/no go" decision will be taken after the poll fallout from the Brown/Morgan love-in, to be inflicted on us this weekend.