07 February 2010

A Brown Sunday, but what does it all mean for the election date

Our Dear Leader is everywhere.  Unfortunately, we are going to have to wade through all this to see if there any clues to when the election will be.

First, there is no need to put those Valentine’s Day celebrations on hold.  Piers Morgan’s interview with Brown has been leaked to the Mail on Sunday.

Moving on from that pre-election performance, our busy leader has given an ‘in-depth’ interview to the Observer, where he attacks the Tories over the “scandal” of Lord Ashcroft.

Now, we get to the latest poll:

CON 39% (-1), LAB 30%(+1), LDEM 20%(-1)

Although the Tories are below 40%, Labour’s all important share of the vote has not increased.  Also, we must remember that the Tory lead in the marginal seats may well be greater than the headline figures.

Then, we move to Patrick Hennessy’s piece in the Sunday Telegraph, where he suggests that Brown may go to the country on 15 April.  With Easter falling at the beginning of the month there must doubt about this date, coupled with the school break and voters taking a holiday.  Brown would get his budget, but he would still have to face Chilcot.  Also, the logistics of when to hold the TV election debates could be complex, although this date does overcome the clash with possible important football matches.

As we have discussed, there are other reasons why the election will not be in April, but with Brown nothing should be ruled out.  If there is to be an election before May, the date of 25 March would still appear to be the favourite.

Finally, let us add something else into the mix.  Mandrake is reporting that Prince William’s engagement to Kate Middleton could be “imminent”.  Brown would like nothing better to have this announced before the election, although HMQ maybe less than amused for this cunning plan being announced so close to an election.

So, where are we?

Brown, gives an emotional interview to Piers Morgan in the hope of gaining sympathy, and presumably to deflect attention away from a possible serialisation of Andrew Rawnsley’s forthcoming book.

Labour will play go for Ashcroft as it puts the Tories on the defensive, but is this really an issue that cuts much ice with the electorate?

Downing Street leaks a possible election date to Patrick Hennessy, a journalist well connected to Brown, to fly a kite and wrong foot the Tories.

The conclusion has to be that Brown is keeping his options open on an earlier poll.  The key is Labour’s share of the vote.  If that doesn't increase before the end February, it would be too greater risk for Labour to have an election on 25 March.

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  1. Great post :D

    Hopefully Gordon will do what he always does and pick the worst option - leave it until May 6th so we can have Chilcot, The Budget, the next GDP figures, tax increases...

    wv copheat - brilliant

  2. If Labour's share of the vote doesn't increase, then it will not matter when the election is. Brown is sunk.