19 February 2010

Election fever Part IV: The 1970 experience

Following the news on the deficit, together with today’s figures showing a slump in retail sales, it looks increasing likely that we will suffer a double-dip recession.

Bearing that in mind, it’s worth turning the clock back to the 1970 election.  The parallel is not exact, but worth bearing in mind.

One of the reasons why Labour lost that election was due to a bad set of trade figures that were released just before polling day.

If the election is on 6 May, this will be some two weeks after the Q1 GDP figures are released on 23 April that may well indicate a return to negative worth.

Gordon Brown will be every aware of this little historical fact when be finally decides on the election date.

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  1. I believe that our +0.1% turned out to be -0.2% ... so it's not a double-dip, it's the same one!

  2. Given the number of shopping days lost to snow in January, I'm surprised that overall retail sales weren't hit harder.