14 February 2010

The latest poll: Cold comfort for Brown

The story from the latest ComRes poll is much the same:

CON 40%(+2), LAB 29%(-2), LDEM 21%(+2)

Labour’s all important share of the vote is stuck at around 30%.  More worrying for the party is the number that are likely to vote:

Turnout figures are significantly depressed compared to February 2005 levels: today’s poll shows 44% ‘absolutely certain’ to vote compared with 56% in 2005, while today 18% say they are ‘certain not to vote’ compared to only 11% in 2005.

The figures point to Labour voters threatening to stay away on election day: 24% of DEs are ‘certain not to vote’, almost twice the 13% of that group who said the same in February 2005.

As discussed, a low turnout favours the Tories.

There are other questions in the poll that Anthony Wells doesn't even bother with.  Mike Smithson rightly calls them “nonsense”.

Brown and the rest of us will have to wait for the post-Piers Morgan polls to see if his sympathy act will increase Labour’s share of the vote.

On the evidence to date, although there is no great enthusiasm for Cameron, the voters don't want five more years of Gordon Brown.

It’s in the media’s interests for the polls to narrow, but it would appear the game is over before the starting whistle has been blown.

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  1. What is perhaps hurting Cameron is that there is no great enthusiasm for politicians at the moment. Bearing this in mind, the continued lead is still respectable and adequate, despite fluctuations.

  2. Agreed. I have posted more on Cameron's problems in later post.

  3. I broadly agree with Jess the Dog's comment.

    But I would add that the consistent lead over Labour has been long and largely stable for well over 5 months now so tbh, I think some of this is rogue polling and pre-GE panic.