The Populus poll for February has been published:
CON 40%(-1), LAB 30%(+2), LDEM 20%(-1)
Labour’s all important share of the vote is static at 30%.
Per Riddell provides this analysis:
If the Tories were one point higher, and Labour one point lower, David Cameron would have an overall majority of 36.
And:
These estimates assume a uniform national swing, or switch, of votes, but, in practice, there are likely to be regional and local variations.
Moreover, there is evidence that the Tories may be doing better in their key target seats which would mean an overall majority at this level of national support.
Moreover, PoliticalBetting suggests that the Tories may win a majority with only a 5% swing.
Whatever they say, whatever they do, the polls are stuck. The electorate are either not engaged or have made up their minds.
Gordon Brown would be well advised to stop the speculation about the election date and announce when the budget will be.
Ideally, of course, he should resign and hand over to Alan Johnson. That is the only hope for Labour if they are going to increase their share of the vote, as it has been for well over a year.
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Cameron and the Tories should not over-react to these fluctuations. There is a correlation between a high Cameron profile and a larger lead. They should keep the messages simple, focus on Brown and trust, as they are doing. This is trench warfare, flurries of soundbites for minor gains. The real battle will be once the election is announced.
ReplyDeleteIncidentally, I think Brown will do Chilcot if this is still on the table - Chilcot today announced that the second phase was reaching its end following Jack Straw's unpleasant grilling. Brown will not believe that he will 'fluff' a Chilcot inquiry and it would be a brave adviser who told him otherwise. There's also the calculated risk that any fallout from a Chilcot appearance might have dispersed by polling day, given a long enough period.
Agree on your 1st para. On Chilcot, there is a high risk that Brown will perform poorly and contradict earlier evidence . The point is, with the polls failing to move, it will be very difficult for him to avoid appearing before the election. I doubt it will spill over into the campaign. People have already made up their minds about Iraq.
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