08 February 2010

Why there will not be a hung parliament

Forget the polls, the analysis and the swing in the marginal seats, William Rees-Mogg has spoken:

It’ll be a hung Parliament

For some months I have been pointing to the stable long-term pattern of the opinion polls. Things can change, but I believe this is the best evidence we have of the likely outcome of a general election. Since last March, the polls have put the Conservatives near 40, Labour 30, and the Liberal Democrats at 20. Yesterday the latest ICM survey was very close to this forecast. If the election did produce a 40-30-20 result, the division of seats might be Conservatives 319; Labour 247; Lib Dem 54. The Tories would form the next government, but would be six seats short of an overall majority.

As Rees-Mogg has a long history of coming to the wrong judgements, Cameron can look forward to a comfortable working majority.

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  1. I have used the Reverse Rees-Mogg Principle as a tried and tested personal opinion-former, for those occasions when I am too busy or bored to think things through for myself. Whatever Mogg advocates is almost always wrong.

    Sadly, the indicator is not 100% reliable, or I would have claimed whatever copyrights or patents to which I might be eligible. Nevertheless, it is a very handy filter to apply to the great questions of the day.

  2. Glad you agree. I don't know why I still read his stuff. Habit, I suppose.

  3. I often read it for the warm and fluffy feeling I know will eventually be experienced, when his confident predictions fall apart. Much the same perverse deferred satisfaction can be gained from reading Anatole Kaletsky's economic opinions.

    When reading these (and others') confident predicitions, I recall Lord Melbourne's words about Lord Macaulay: "I wish I was as certain of anything as Tom Macaulay is of everything."

  4. Private Eye always revels in the inacurate predictions of "Mystic Moog", and more recently Kaletsky, so albertmbankment isn't alone here. My own suspicions are that Cameron will scrape past the finishing line with a small majority.

  5. I also think it will be a hung parliament, polls on this website:http://www.charter2010.co.uk/pollwatch
    also reveal that the public support the idea of a hung parliament. I think a multi government may be able to handle the financial crisis better than one political party alone could.