21 August 2009

We need a few polls

Good stuff from Mike Smithson overnight as he asks, Is the Brown TV black-out a deliberate strategy?.  Of course it is, as discussed here.  The dilemma for Labour is that when the strategy was devised, they hadn't factored in that the Tories would cock up during the silly season.

We need some polls, but the results may not shed much light on whether Brown is Labour’s problem.  The two published last weekend ago showed little movement, but obviously that was before the full effect of the Tories bad fortnight could be reflected.

The next polls could be interesting.  If the they stay the same, then not only is Brown the problem but Labour also and, more importantly, the Tory mistakes have not resonated with the voters.  However, if they move in Labour’s direction, will it be due to Brown’s absence or because the self-inflicted Tory errors have been recognised?

AJ4PM?  Certainly the next few weeks may well give a good indication as to whether Labour must make the change to avoid a meltdown at the polls.

The critically important conference season could be decisive for both parties.

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