31 August 2009

The poll that sums up the month

Anthony Wells has the details of the latest YouGov monthly poll for the Telegraph:

CON 42%(nc), LAB 26%(-2), LDEM 18%(nc)

As the silly season and the summer holidays end today it is worth stating the obvious.  Brown absence has not made any difference to the polls, neither has the not-serious-about power element of the Tory party.

There has been some talk about whether the perceived economic recovery that Brown will ensure takes place no matter what (oh yes, the figures will be massaged somehow), will translate into improved polling for Labour.  The bad news for Labour suggests that this is unlikely.  Historically, governments that are responsible for a downturn do not benefit when the economy turns round.  1970, 1979 and 1997 are all cases in point.

So, it would seem that Brown’s fate is sealed.  The voters have had enough, and it is unlikely that there will be any game changing tactics to be had.

Let the critical pre-conference season begin that will determine whether Brown leads the Labour party into the election. If he does, then Cameron’s landside majority is almost assured, so long as he does not drop that Ming vase.

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