Monday’s catch up on the Labour leadership

Moving on from Mandy’s non-debate, we have to return to the real debate going on about Our Dear Leader.  John Rentoul neatly summed up where we are late yesterday and made this point:

Events Dear Boy is also worried that January may be leaving it too late, and says it has to be done next month. The sooner the better, of course, but the later the more likely. Not least because if Gordon Brown makes it into 2010 he becomes a three-year prime minister rather than a two-year one.

John has raised this before and he is right to remind us that it will look better from Brown’s point of view, but it does not overcome the point made here:

Also, it has to be October.  As argued, the change is too cynical in January, too late and unknown unknowns could make the change impossible to execute.  It might then be easier to persuade him of the Philip Webster scenario.

The worry has to be the “unknown unknowns”.  The Webster scenario of Brown’s “failing eyesight” may be rather a stretch too far if some major international incident bubbles up.

Moving on.  The Mail reports this morning that Barry Sheerman may challenge for the chairmanship of the Parliamentary Labour party.  As Rentoul says, “the more plots the merrier” but it is still too public.  The real challenge will come from inside the Cabinet.  The PLP have made too many cock-ups organising coups.

Paul Waugh asks, “Is Hattie Harman mobilising?”.  She may well be, but it will not be her.  The Cabinet and Labour MPs will decide Brown’s fate after which the electoral college will just rubber stamp.  There is no time for a prolonged contested election for a new leader.  Waugh’s views on the AJ4PM debate would be more relevant.

So, the leadership debate continues while we wait for Hopi Sen tell us all why the Labour party should stick with Brown.