14 September 2009

AJ4PM: The polls that matters

Paul Waugh has updated his earlier post which more-or-less confirms that Harman will not run against Brown.  Moreover, John Rentoul reminds us that she already had ruled herself out as far back as May.

More important than all this non-speculation is a poll by PoliticsHome of the Phi100 that indicates that Alan Johnson would clearly be the unions choice to replace Brown:

imageOur Man is the clear favourite and Harman is only on 4%, which neatly seals her fate.

Populus for The Times has a poll out tomorrow which shows little movement and confirms that Labour’s autumn fight back is so far not working:

Conservatives 41 (+3) Lab 27 (+1) LD 18 (-2).

However, this is the key finding:

The poll is devastating about Mr Brown’s position as leader. Just one third think he is the best leader that Labour could have at present. But nearly two-thirds (65 per cent) believe there are other Labour politicians who would make a better leader than Mr Brown. Some 48 per cent cannot think of anyone specific but believe “literally anyone would do a better job than him”.

And this:

Just 17 per cent can think of other leading Labour politicians. However, when this group is asked to name someone, without any names being prompted. 43 per cent say they don’t know, followed by David Miliband on 13 per cent, Harriet Harman on seven per cent, and Jack Straw and Alan Johnson equal on six per cent.

This is excellent news for Our Man as it will not be any of the others mentioned, and certainly not Miliband this side of the election.

The polls that do matter will come after the conference season, when reaction to Brown’s do-or-die speech can be judged.

The evidence of today indicates that AJ4PM is on course.

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