18 October 2009

Who is right, the polls or the media?

The latest polls from YouGov and ComRes reinforce the Populus findings that the Tory party haven't had a post-conference bounce and, more importantly, the next election is far from over.

Not that this worries the media, who have further reports on the Tories post-election plans.  Today we are told that Cameron is going to appoint temporary peers and bring back Michael Heseltine.

Matthew d'Ancona adds to the complacency that the election is in the bag:

After he has settled into No 10, David Cameron will doubtless convene a meeting of his new and much-larger parliamentary party.

With little more than six months to the election, a sense of arrogance has crept into the media that a Tory victory is assured.  However, the psephologists, now backed by the polls, indicate that a hung parliament is the more likely outcome.

The media narrative will not change, especially while Brown is still leader, but with Cameron failing to cut through to the pubic Labour should not give up.

There is no evidence to suggest that Labour should be written off.  Far from it.

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