The British Chambers of Commerce doubts whether the UK will come out of recession during the current quarter. The official figures are out next week.
Now, if this the case the headlines will be awful for Brown, but the fact we may still in recession rather plays into his hands. He will be able to argue that this is not the time for cuts; we need to keep the investment going; and the Tories have got it all wrong, blah, blah, blah. In a nutshell, the Blanchflower scenario wins through.
If we come out of recession too early, then the main trust of his argument against the Tories policy falls away. The man who “saved the world” would have completed his job. Politically, it is such better for Our Dear Leader if we stay in recession until the new year.
Of course, all this would be much more plausible if Labour had a leader the electorate would listen to, rather than one who had lost the trust of the voters.
That, as they say, is another story.
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I'd imagine that Brown's fortunes will be linked to the economy. The earlier we get back to growth, the quicker Gordy can set about trying to take the credit.
ReplyDeleteCameron's whole attack on Big Government will look a bit silly if and when a Big Government solution to the crisis then delivers help. Not that it will matter, but it may make a difference to some