The backdrop to Cameron’s big speech

Let’s be honest it has been rather a bumpy ride.  From Europe and Boris through to Dannatt and Grayling.  In between we had Gambler George.

Yesterday, Cameron received a further warning not to meddle with the Lisbon treaty once it is ratified.  Europe will bubble to the surface before the end of the year, much sooner than Our Dave would like.

The Grayling “gaffe”, saying that Dannatt’s appointment was a “political gimmick”, will come back to bite the Tories once the Labour attack dogs are let loose.  Of course, if Dannatt had controlled himself on the radio none of this would have happened.  Further proof, if it was needed, that ‘goats” do not make good politicians.

However, the most important news for Cameron yesterday came with the YouGov tracker poll, showing the Tories slightly increasing their lead over Labour.  But, as Anthony Wells points out, it is too early to access Osborne’s gamble.  YouGov are to produce another tracker poll at midday, two hours before Cameron speaks.

This afternoon Cameron will set out his vision for the country, offer hope, optimism and will attempt to prove that he is the Prime Minister-in-waiting.

At the end of the day does a party conference or three matter?  Through all the ups and downs of last three weeks the polls haven't moved, the political weather hasn't really changed nor has the media narrative.

The question today is the same as it was in the middle of September.  Can Cameron “seal the deal”.