The findings of the Newsnight poll

Cornell Belcher, Obama’s polling guru, has been making a series of films for Newsnight gauging public opinion for the conference season.  The final instalment was shown last night.  It starts about 25 mins in after the Boris Johnson comedy act.

This was one of the key findings:

Almost two thirds of those who intend to vote Tory at the next election, 64%, will do so as a vote against PM Gordon Brown and Labour.

And another:

38% of those polled [have] a favourable or very favourable opinion of the prime minister, and 61% [have] an unfavourable or very unfavourable opinion.

The poll were taken in mid-September and no doubt the films were made at the same time, so they have to viewed in this context.

Belcher came to the conclusion that although voters want change, they are wary of the Tories and negative towards Brown, as indicated above:

they are not uncomfortable with Labour but with the leader.

What would be interesting, when we get to the post-conference polls, is to have a question that asks:

If Labour replaces Brown before the next election, would you be more likely or less likely to vote Tory.

Some of us haven't given up, not yet.