Brown’s demise. Could John Rentoul be right?

Earlier this week I had a blog exchange with John Rentoul on whether Brown could be replaced before the election and how how this could be achieved.  My issues with him were in the main with Labour party procedures and having two non-elected PMs in one parliament.

Rentoul could be on to something and the methodology he describes for removing Brown may well prove accurate.  The only caveat I have is on the timing.  If Labour does move against Brown it will come in the summer.

Let us make some assumptions:

1. The G20 in April will only be partially successful.  The meeting may agree actions in principal which will lead to further talks.  The EU will not be united.  New trade talks will go nowhere.  The spin will claim success but the small print  of the communiqué will not;

2. There is little doubt that Brown will pull some rabbits out the on Budget Day.  The public will be sceptical and nothing will happen to change the political weather;

3. Labour suffers heavy losses in the elections in early June;

4. Cameron starts closing the deal with the electorate on his return.

It is clear now that Labour MPs are more demoralised and disillusioned than they have ever been.  Brown’s visit to Obama cut little ice with the PLP and most MPs gave it little attention.

Brown will damage anyone that challenges him.  He has form here, and just earlier this week Harman was demolished over her comments on Goodwin’s pension.  However it is impossible to damage contenders who say very little.  Alan Johnson falls into this category, and I agree that he is the only credible alternative.  The unions would not cause any trouble if Johnson was the successor.

There will be blood in the party and it will not be smooth.  However John Rentoul it right and his point is taken.  Labour has no alternative and has to replace Brown if electoral disaster is to be avoided.