28 March 2009

The drum beats get louder

Both Matthew Parris and Peter Oborne give Brown full throttle in their columns.

Parris concludes:

Don't rule out an October revolution. Don't rule out Mr Brown himself staring a 2010 defeat in the face, and deciding to run away. He's avoided two elections already - for the leadership, and then for an early general. He can duck a third.

There will be a revolution before October and Brown will not go of his own accord.

Oborne deals with Brown’s humiliation in the lead up to the G20 and makes these astute comments about the White House position:

Another consequence of this week's humiliation of Gordon Brown concerns his relations with Barack Obama. The new U.S. President was never keen to attend next week's G20 summit and still regards it as an almost complete waste of time.

Indeed, he is so resigned to the London meeting being a failure that he is contemplating summoning his own meeting of world leaders in Washington to address the financial crisis, a move that would heap humiliation upon humiliation on Gordon Brown.

Furthermore, there is grave concern at the White House about the state of the British economy. The U.S. relies heavily on British military support in Iraq and Afghanistan, and fears that the collapse of the British Government's ability to raise credit could jeopardise that support.

Indeed, there was consternation and - to quote one White House adviser - 'shock' at the failure this week to sell £1.75 billion government bonds because of investors' lack of confidence in the British Government's creditworthiness.

Downing Street may have brushed off this fiasco as a minor matter of little importance, but in Washington it is being taken very seriously. There is even speculation that the U.S. may have to come to the aid of the broken finances of its close ally.

Indeed.   The key meeting next week will be the first between Obama and President Hu Jintao.  If, as expected, the G20 fails, it will be these two leaders that subsequently get together to resolve the economic mess.

Oborne concludes:

Now, however, the Budget will merely reveal the full scale of our national debt. After the Budget come the local and European elections in June, in which Labour faces certain electoral disaster. Matters could scarcely be more grim for the Prime Minister.

Indeed, they are getting so bad that I am no longer as certain as I once was that he will lead Labour into the next General Election. There is a possibility that he may face mutiny over the months ahead.


So now we have Rentoul, Parris, Oborne and Kettle on board saying the obvious will happen.  June will be a very interesting month.

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