The Labour leadership revisited

Having already concluded that the G20 will be a failure, the commentators are slowly returning to the issue of Brown’s leadership.  Martin Kettle goes on and on in his column before making the only point that matters:

Along with most commentators, I had concluded that the return of Peter Mandelson to the government in the autumn meant that the leadership issue which so convulsed Labour last summer was finally dead until the general election. Now I begin to have doubts. There is talk again, not much but more than for some months, about whether Brown can hold on till the election. The verdict on the G20 will be very important here, as will the budget and the European elections. It can't just go on like this for another 14 months, one Labour MP complained this week. But it can, and it will - won't it?

No it can’t go on like this, absolutely not, as the Tory lead in the polls is now at a consistent 10% to 12%.  The only question is, not if but when, Brown gets a visit from the men in grey suits.  The added problem is it will get worse for Labour and panic will set in.

Exhibit 1: The G20 concludes without any substantial decisions being taken and is written up as a failure.  The markets plummet and the pound falls;

Easter intervenes.

Exhibit 2; There is a further fallout between Brown, King and Brown in the lead up to budget.  The event itself is a non-event except for some tactical measures in an attempt to wrong foot the Tories;

The local and European elections intervene.

Exhibit 3: The results are awful for Labour and questions about the leadership openly break out in the media.

So we get to mid June before any action can be taken to get Moses out, and by then there has been further self-inflicted damage to Labour's prospects.

Alan Johnson (the only credible candidate, as I have argued previously) steps forward in an attempt to give Labour a fighting chance.  By then it will surely be too late.