03 June 2009

Who will get the vote out?

YouGov has a final poll for the European elections:

CON 26%(-1), LAB 16%(-1), LDEM 15%(nc), UKIP 18%(+2), GRN 10%(+1), BNP 5%(-2)

Anthony Wells comments:

Not a vast change in the last few days, but a marginal shift towards smaller parties. Perhaps the two most significant things there are Labour dropping to third place behind UKIP (though of course, UKIP, Labour and the Lib Dems are all still very close and it could go every way) - expectations for Labour must be getting so low that if they do manage to hold second place it would be seen as something of a victory - and secondly the BNP dropping to 5%. On a uniform swing that wouldn’t be enough for them to gain any seats, though of course, it is possible that they could do so if their vote is concentrated in the right places.

Labour could finish 2nd (No prizes for guessing how that would be spun), 3rd or 4th.  The Tories will be none too happy either as they need to see their vote higher than this at above 30%.

More evidence with this poll that anything could happen over the next few days and probably will.

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