The Guardian has published what it believes is the timetable to unseat Brown, which assumes a contested election:
9 June: The prime minister is forced from office.
10 June: Labour's ruling national executive committee would meet and a new timetable would be announced.
The rebels have told the Guardian they think, and some senior trade union officials have even suggested to them, that the trade union involvement could be cut out altogether.
11 June: The parliamentary Labour party would meet and nominate their chosen new leader on the Thursday
12 June: Nominations for leader close.
16 June: Leadership ballot papers are distributed.
29 June: Selection of the new leader at a special conference held by the Labour party
2 July: Brown would formally resign and the new prime minister would be installed.
However, It worth stating what Rentoul said back in March:
The Labour Party rule that is helpful is that which says that if Brown were to resign (if when in Government the leader becomes "permanently unavailable"), the post of leader does not automatically pass to the deputy but to one of their number agreed by the Cabinet. That person becomes leader and prime minister while a leadership election is being organised.
This is more plausible and FT Westminster agrees.
Assuming Brown goes and Harman does not kick up a fuss, Alan Johnson could become prime minister next week.
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Meh, they'll try and force him out.
ReplyDeleteBrown's demeanour is one of someone in no mood to be unseated, he spent a decade lusting after the role and will be damned if he's departing before he absolutely has to.
I think the reshuffle will be the start of a very painful civil war inside Labour, Brown refusing to do the right thing by his party and nation, becoming increasingly paranoid and isolated.
The remaining Brownites will hang on to him, like riding a bucking bronco, for fear of the fall and potential goring if they let go.
Brown will lead a fractured, broken Labour party to an overwhelming defeat they may never recover from.