24 July 2009

The fallout from Brown’s bleakest day

Acres of coverage and analysis you will read follow this by-election result.  Perhaps Chloe Smith spoke for the country today when her result was declared:

The people of Norwich North have rejected the old politics of personal attacks, of bickering, of smears and scare stories.

They have voted for change. And in doing so they have sent a message to Gordon Brown very loud and very clear.

Cameron has now ‘sealed the deal’ with the electorate.  This by-election result is a watershed and there is little doubt that Cameron will our next elected Prime Minister.

If the Norwich North swing of 16.5% was repeated across the country, this would be the result at the next election:

The Tories would have 434 MPs, with Labour on 107, Liberal Democrats 79 and others 30.

Cameron would have a majority of 218.

For the Labour party the choice is simple.  It has to replace Brown if it is to avoid meltdown at the next election.  Will it happen?  Will Mandy now move after the summer and tell Brown it is all over?  Will there be a bloodless transition to Alan Johnson?  There is not much time.  The calls for a general election will grow and Cameron will bang this drum repeatedly with much justification.

At the end of Brown’s bleak day the reality is Labour will not win the election no matter who is the leader.

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