26 January 2009

Brown, the polls and the sands of time

Has there been a shift of mood with the latest polls moving against Brown.  My guess is there could be an Obama factor in the latest poll findings.  Are people asking that with US having a new beginning, so should the UK?  It would be an interesting question to ask.

The other huge problem for Moses and Mandy is time.  It is running out fast.  There is only 16 months to go before there has to be an election.  The realistic options now are June or October ‘09 or May ‘10.  Only Major has been returned after a full five year term since the war, and that was because Labour bungled the campaign in ‘92.

If Brown does leave it to May ‘10 he runs the risk of being overtaken by events outside his control.  At present an election this year in unlikely but not out of the question.

He could cut taxes in this years budget and go to the polls in June or October saying this is my plan, I am the man to see the country through etc.  It does not sound that convincing, does it?

He could say things are so bad that we need a government of national unity.  The problem is, would anyone join?  Cable would be tempted but it would split the LibDems from top to bottom.

So what then?  Of course Mandy would have thought all this through.   I reckon he is stumped.  Electoral history is not on their side.

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