10 May 2009

No comfort for Brown

Read the polls here if you wish.  I doubt that they mean much on this particular weekend, especially as some of the field work was carried out before the expenses revelations.  However, it is worth noting that the BPIX poll shows Labour dropping to 23%, below the level of it’s core vote.

If that was not bad enough for Brown, the interview with Peter Watt, Labour’s former general secretary, will bring  little cheer to Downing Street:

Publicly, Gordon talks about values and his moral compass, but actually the way he conducts himself behind the scenes is anything but that - it’s brutal.

No matter what anyone says, the election had been called and was then cancelled. We had been working on it for weeks. We spent £1.2m in immediate preparations.

Finally, Cameron is raising the stakes over the part sell-off the Royal Mail, saying he may not support any watered down proposals.  Furthermore, Cameron is hinting that if the Government's plans fall he may call for a vote of no confidence:

Yes, as long as the Government doesn't do something crazy and change its mind and do a U-turn. We support part-privatisation of the Post Office... So as long as they don't do something crazy and suddenly change their plans, and as long as they answer reasonable questions about the structures of what they are putting in place, and as long as they are reasonable about how much time the House of Commons has to debate and discuss this.

You are not going to bring the Government down over this. You are going to bring the Government down if there's an issue of confidence.

Cameron knows that Brown will have to compromise over the Royal Mail or drop the plans, so what he says makes Brown look weak.  Calling for a vote of no confidence just emphasises Brown’s lack of authority.  It may make for good parliamentary theatre, but it is meaningless and Cameron knows this.

Putting the expenses revelations aside and how they may influence the polls, the key event is still the June elections.  If the actual results show that Labour’s core vote has been eroded and they finish behind the Tories and the LibDems, Brown’s days will be numbered.  It is worth remembering, as I mentioned below, that Alan Johnson has not been tarnished by the expenses scandal.

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1 comment:

  1. I'm glad that Watt and his family has survived the clunking fist but it has to be remembered that Brown always takes responsibility and that is why he sacks the person responsible. That's leadership.

    It gets worse, doesn't it?