23 November 2009

The polls and two Jackie Ashley articles

Two weeks ago Jackie Ashley had this to say:

Some Labour people may think I'm sounding too gloomy, but those who have been privy to recent private polling are a lot more than gloomy. This suggests that Labour could return to the Commons with just 120 MPs or thereabouts, taking the party back to 1930s territory. As ministers look for jobs to keep themselves going after politics, a Miliband move to Europe looks sensible.

Today, on the back of one poll showing the Tory lead narrowing to 6%, all that is forgotten:

First, an overall Tory victory is not 100% certain. Second, a minority Tory government would be a very fragile craft. Third, there is a possible Lib-Lab deal to be done if the personalities are right.

Perhaps we should all calm down, read Anthony Wells and Nick Robinson and wait for a few more polls.  Only then will we know if there has been a dramatic shift in public opinion.

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