10 November 2009

The election is far from over

Another poll and yet more evidence that a hung parliament is a real possibility:

CON 39%, LAB 29%, LDEM 18%

Peter Riddell offers this analysis:

According to the UK Polling Report’s ready reckoner, which assumes a uniform switch of votes between the parties, these figures would give the Tories a majority of only two.

There is a growing perception that the Tories may not win the election with an overall majority:

The number expecting a Tory overall majority has slipped from 57 to 50 per cent in the past month, the lowest level since the question was first asked in April. By contrast, the number expecting a hung Parliament with no overall majority has risen from 17 to 26 per cent. However, 65 per cent still expect the Tories to be the largest party, against 27 per cent for Labour.

Alastair Campbell was right to say, “Labour needs more of the winning mentality”

Too many Labour people are talking and behaving as though the game is over, when whatever the polls and the media say, it is not.

Because everywhere you go, you get the same message - that whatever problems people may have with Labour, they are not rushing to embrace the Tories.

His point has been discussed many times and this is starting to be reflected in the polls.

Maybe, just maybe, David Miliband’s decision will send an important message to Labour MPs; that the game is not over and with a change of leader there is a realistic possibility of denying the Tories a majority.

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  1. I also think many with anti-government sentiment will come back to Labour before the election.
    At the risk of being (very) patronising, I think they will make a grown up decision to move away from supporting no-one or a fringe party and come back into the fold.
    This may, of course, be true of other parties too

  2. Seems to me that the polls are being driven by an intensity of anti Government feeling. I suspect there is very little pro Tory sentiment in the figures. Cameron hasn't made the Tories electable as the spinners like to spin. Blair and Brown have made Labour unelectable, but not by much.

    The Conservatives need a 'Tory' leader, not an Heir to Blair spinning his way uncertainly in the general direction of Downing Street.

  3. I don't think Blair has made Labour unelectable, it's only Gordy in his time as PM that has seen their/our poll ratings plummet. Blair won his last election comfortably.
    Cameron seems stuck between two stalls, both trying to be a Tory with his anti-Big Government line but trying not to alienate people so much. And his Party Of The Poor giggle

  4. As a Kiwi, I find UK politics rather confusing. Why would someone called bearded Socialist support Blair of all people? I can see why this blog is in The UK right of centre top 100, your New Labour party is certainly far to the right of any labour party I've ever heard of. I'm very sorry for the people of the UK, stuck with ffp and a choice between bad and absolutely awful! You all have my deepest sympathy.

  5. My left-wing defence of Tony Blair:

  6. Paul,

    The category that this blog is listed under is not of my choosing, but of Iain Dale.

  7. EDBE,
    Where would you put yourself, out of interest?

  8. I was card carrying member of the Labour party for many years. These days I just observe from the touchline.

    I would put myself just to the left of centre.

  9. Good points, Bearded Socialist, but imo there are two unforgiveable problems, firstly the war obviously, and secondly the gap between rich and poor which grew enormously during the Blair years.
    EDBE thanks for clearing that up, I'm enjoying your blog cheers. I'm a Micheal Foot kind of Labour person myself. I'll be interested to hear where you place yourself in the spectrum

  10. Yeah, Iraq is a problem. As is the wealth gap. But i still argue that Blair and New Labour are a left of centre political movement that the likes of me can support.

    Michael Foot (my 2nd hero after Bevan) was always a huge fan of Blair, who was elected under the Great Mr Foot in 1983. As was Gordy.

    Any idea why Dale's claimed you as one of his own?
    I enjoy this blog and i can be a bit tribal about these things

  11. No idea why Dale listed me as he did. Presumably, because of the Brown bashing.

  12. That hardly makes you right of centre.
    Maybe it's because your blog is popular and he wanted you onside? Or at least appear to be on his side.