The election is far from over

Another poll and yet more evidence that a hung parliament is a real possibility:

CON 39%, LAB 29%, LDEM 18%

Peter Riddell offers this analysis:

According to the UK Polling Report’s ready reckoner, which assumes a uniform switch of votes between the parties, these figures would give the Tories a majority of only two.

There is a growing perception that the Tories may not win the election with an overall majority:

The number expecting a Tory overall majority has slipped from 57 to 50 per cent in the past month, the lowest level since the question was first asked in April. By contrast, the number expecting a hung Parliament with no overall majority has risen from 17 to 26 per cent. However, 65 per cent still expect the Tories to be the largest party, against 27 per cent for Labour.

Alastair Campbell was right to say, “Labour needs more of the winning mentality”

Too many Labour people are talking and behaving as though the game is over, when whatever the polls and the media say, it is not.

Because everywhere you go, you get the same message - that whatever problems people may have with Labour, they are not rushing to embrace the Tories.

His point has been discussed many times and this is starting to be reflected in the polls.

Maybe, just maybe, David Miliband’s decision will send an important message to Labour MPs; that the game is not over and with a change of leader there is a realistic possibility of denying the Tories a majority.