21 November 2009

Poll caution

There is a Ipsos-Mori poll out showing the Tory lead down to 6%.  The fieldwork was carried out in the immediate aftermath of the Glasgow North East by-election and before the Queen’s Speech:

CON 37%(-6), LAB 31%(+5), LDEM 17%(-2)

Anthony Wells rightly says:

As ever, I would urge extreme caution on any poll showing a large shift in voting intention, especially where there is no obvious reason for a large, short term movement.

We need a post Queen's Speech poll before jumping to any conclusions.  If the trend is confirmed we could be in for a very interesting few weeks as Labour MPs finally decide what to do about the leadership.

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  1. Makes sense to me. Voters are waking up to the fact that they don't really want an Heir to Blair and the spin an spivery that goes with it.

  2. They want more of Brown?