28 November 2009

The latest poll and Labour’s worries about Brown and Mandy

YouGov’s monthly poll shows that Tories would fall short of a majority:

CON 39%(-2), LAB 29%(+2), LDEM 19%(+1)

However, in 32 northern marginal seats the Tories are doing rather better:

CON 42%(+8), LAB 36%(-8), LDEM 12%(-5)

As usual, Anthony Wells has a good analysis:

The overall share of the vote doesn’t appear to be enough to guarantee the Conservatives a majority, but in at least one group of marginals, they are outdoing the national swing by enough to get a majority.

However, The TImes reports that voters are returning to Labour:

Although still reasonably confident about their chances of victory, senior Tories have acknowledged a shift against them. Recent canvassing has found that “Coronation Street” voters, who typically live in terraced houses and switched to the Conservatives because of the 10p tax rate, are returning to Labour.

Assuming he is still in post, The Times article also highlights Labour’s concern about how to present Brown at the election “as he asks for five more years in charge”

We cannot afford for it to be just Gordon and David Cameron on telly the whole time.

So, who then?  Well, it will not be Mandy:

Populus asked voters in September to rate politicians on a scale of 0 to 100 and Lord Mandelson’s low rating, at 29.4, suggests that the revival in his reputation has not reached beyond Westminster. His rating of 50 among Labour voters is the lowest among their party supporters. “Downing Street knows that he isn’t as popular outside as he is in here,” said one minister.

The solution is to have a have a new leader.  It would solve these little presentational difficulties and ensure there was a hung parliament after the election .

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1 comment:

  1. The shift against the Tories goes a little deeper than you suggest.

    Cameron's handling of the ratification of the Lisbon Treaty, the relief when he was able to avoid a Referendum was clear, has put him in the same light as Brown refusing to honour a manifesto pledge.

    For the man in the street - despite the promises and spin - Cameron is not going to give the British people a chance to speak on the European matter. - he is just as untrustworthy as Brown or any other politician.

    Its all about perceived honesty - Cameron has lost a chunk of credibility.