24 April 2010

Five polls and Labour's weekend

There are five polls out tonight:
Comres: CON 34%(-1), LAB 28%(+3), LDEM 29%(+2)

ICM: CON 35%(+2), LAB 26%(-2), LDEM 31%(+1)

YouGov: CON 35%(+1), LAB 27%(-2), LDEM 29% (nc)

BPIX: CON 34%(+3), LAB 26%(-2), LDEM 30%(-2)
But one is a rouge:
Ipsos MORI poll: CON 36%(+4), LAB 30%(+2), LDEM 23%(-9)
So, the Tories are in a slightly stronger position, the Lib Dems momentum has been maintained and Labour are still in the game (just).

Who knows what is going on?  Not Labour, that's for sure.  Yesterday's NHS rally was dreadful and to put the icing on the cake Alastair Campbell is off to the football tomorrow.  Would that have happened if Blair had been fighting for Labour's fourth term?


  1. I think Cameron will be in Downing Street on May 7th, with a handful of seats. Clegg's surge is an amazing phenomenon but I can't see how it will translate into votes on the ground - Lib Dems and Labour are both struggling locally. Having said that, I'd like to see a Con-Lib coalition, just out of curiosity....

  2. Maybe, but the polls are not reflecting what is actually going on in the marginals nor are they factoring the postal vote. See earlier post.

    If the Tories are the largest party, I think they may govern alone and then call another election in the early spring of next year. Clegg may want a deal with Tories but his party will not.

    We shall see.

  3. A "rouge"?! How terribly Barbara Cartland, my dear!

    Now, if you really wanted to give a full picture you could even mention the poll in the People which has Labour on 23%. But to be fair you do seem at last to be recognising that, despite what you've been telling us for months, Labour's machine is certainly not unstoppable - indeed it seems to have skidded off the road and wrapped itself round a tree.

  4. I fail to understand what your game is. The OnePoll survey in the People is not weighted nor does it use proper sampling.

    I have been fairly critical of Labour's campaign. You are just blind in one eye.

  5. No game, just increasing irritation at the way you won't apply the same standard to everyone wanting to run our country.

    Just one example: we've been had endless snide comments about the "Prime Minister-in-waiting", for example because David Cameron doesn't always wear a tie at some events. Many people don't nowadays, even in business settings; it doesn't make them bad people, it just isn't 1950 any more. Yet when Nick Clegg doesn't, you don't seem to think it worthy of comment. And when Gordon Brown appears with an Elvis impersonator - see the photo on today's BBC Election blog - that gets at best a few mildly disdainful words at the end of a post. It's hard to believe that if David Cameron had done that you wouldn't have thought that deserved a whole post, and probably several.

    As my granny used to say: goose, gander.

  6. This is my blog. I post what I want, not what you would like to read. For your information Cameron has been criticised for his campaign on blogs that support the Tories.

    I would grateful if you would take your stupidity elsewhere.