07 April 2010

A ‘cut-out and keep’ election prediction

The main thrust of John Rentoul’s article is, of course, right, specifically when he says:

Never mind that the Tory promise not to raise National Insurance contributions is utterly unprincipled, illogical and bad policy. There is an election on.

Then, before the manifesto’s have been sent to the printers:

So I'm not going to bet with any serious money, you understand. But put me down for a Cameron majority of 16 in the office sweepstake.

Boy oh boy, this is a very brave prediction from the emeritus chairman of the AJ4PM campaign.

However, we are agreed that any majority has to be an even number.

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  1. If Sinn Fein still have 5 seats after the election, would that not mean that the House of Commons had, effectively, 645 (or 641 if you exclude the Speaker and his deputies) members, so the effective majority would be an odd number?

  2. I included the Speaker because he is being challenged.