06 March 2010

Poll shock and a glance back to March 1997

Take your pick with the latest YouGov and ICM polls:

Anthony Wells on the ICM shock:

The changes themselves are the margin of error and don’t necessarily mean anything, but I’m sure it will give some cheer to the Conservatives. As ever, it is worth being wary of any apparent change in the trend in the polls until we see it picked up in other polling.

Now, let’s go back to the same period in 1997:

In March 1997 there were nine published pre-election polls and these gave Labour an average lead of 24% over the Conservatives.

Where would Team Cameron prefer to be tonight?

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  1. There were nine polls giving Labour an average lead of 24%, and they were ALL wrong.

    That is why all the pollsters changed their methods after the fiasco.

  2. If you look at the pre-election polls and actual election results for recent elections you will notice that the conservatives and libdems typically pick up a couple of percent from labour during the election campaign. Probably more this time if the campaign focuses on Brown's record.

    I'm sure Team Cameron know that they dont need a 24% lead to do the job that AJ and DM didnt have the balls for.

  3. Anonymous, Of course the polls will change during the campaign and the they do have a habit of overstating LAbour's actual share of the vote.

    The point I am making is this not where Cameron should be less than nine weeks out from the election.

  4. SwagBucks is a very popular get-paid-to website.