15 March 2010

The polls: Is Sam Cam working?

The Tories take two steps forward with polls taken before Nick Clegg’s speech and Samantha Cameron’s interview:

Opinium: CON 39%(+2), LAB 28%(-2), LDEM 16%(nc)

ICM: 40%(+2), LAB 31%(nc), LDEM 20%(-1)

Now, the YouGov tracker poll taken after both events:

CON 37%(nc), LAB 32%(-1), LDEM 21%(+4)

Nick Clegg gets a boost but nothing for Sam Cam.

Just as significant is the analysis of the ICM poll:

Voters remain unconvinced by the Conservative alternative, with 29% thinking a clear Tory victory would be best. Only 18% think Britain would be best served by a strong Labour win this spring. Both groups are outnumbered by the 44% who want a hung parliament in which the government works with smaller parties such as the Liberal Democrats.

Nothing for Brown and not much for Cameron.

The electorate remain unconvinced by either party.

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  1. Voters are uncertain about the best economic 'medicine'. Any hint of incompetence drives them in the opposite direction and the Tories have suffered to an extent.

    It looks as if this has reached the end of the swing and may be bouncing back Cameron's way. I think this may be more to do with the generals' backlash on armed forces funding reigniting distrust in Brown.

    Could the EU help the Conservative economic argument by criticising the proposed Labour budget cuts and forecasts?


  2. Yes the EU could help the Tories but it's just one more view in increasingly muddy pool.

    The polls are too volatile. The voters don't want Brown but they not buying Cameron yet.

    We need a game changing moment, which may well be the budget.

  3. The Budget is indeed the critical moment.

    It's like PMQs in reverse with the Tories getting the last word in.

    Once Darling has spoken Brown's words, they can't be unspoken.