BA strike: Do we need a third man?

To pack, or not to pack, that is the question.  Unfortunately, we no further forward with the answer. 

There is the odd meeting happening.  Unite have mobilised their cousins in far away countries and BA, giving a lesson in ‘how not to do it’, have upped the ante with the threat to sack union officials involved with the strike.

Meanwhile:

Gordon Brown and Lord Mandelson will plead with British Airways and the Unite union over the next 24 hours to return to the negotiating table so the cabin crew strike due to start on Saturday can be called off.

In a two-pronged approach, the Prime Minister will hold private talks with the union's leadership, while Lord Mandelson, the Business Secretary, will speak to BA management. Two "go-betweens" will press both sides to make a last-minute effort to avert the industrial action: Brendan Barber, the TUC general secretary, and the conciliation service Acas.

All good stuff and no doubt, just in case they are needed, the beer and sandwiches are being prepared.  But, haven't we forgotten someone?

There has to be case of using the skills of Alan Johnson to solve this dispute.  Johnson is well versed in the little ways of the unions, is a good negotiator and may bring a fresh approach to the table as both sides become increasingly entrenched.

Our esteemed chairman of the AJ4PM committee has expressed some concerns of late about AJ’s performance.  Johnson could redeem himself and prove beyond doubt why he, and not Brown, should be sitting in Downing Street.

“Gordon is going to need an hour to bring people over”

With Tony it was ‘sofa government’, but with Gordon it will be a sofa campaign:

Coming to a home near you, the prime minister intends to get up front and personal during the campaign, holding intimate meetings in the living rooms of pillars of the community, in the hope that his message will then ripple out and through the constituency.

The sitting room sessions might not be glamorous, but they are quite "Gordon" – and will help him to come across as a normal human being, is the thought of Labour strategists.

"We think it is a format that will work for Gordon," said a Labour insider. "We have to try something different in the face of public attitude to all politicians. Sometimes Gordon is going to need an hour to bring people over in a way in which he cannot in five minutes."

Perhaps the BA strikes are all part of a cunning plan to ensure we are not on holiday when he calls.

The Tory message has been “over-intellectualised”

Life is becoming very confusing for Tory MPs in their attempt to sell the Tory message or “policy pyramid”

MPs and candidates were left baffled after being told at a private meeting to campaign on a combination of one slogan, three promises and six pledges.

Oliver Letwin, the party’s policy chief, told MPs at the gathering on Tuesday night to think of a policy pyramid when talking to voters. The top of the pyramid has the slogan: “We can’t go on like this. Vote for change.”

Senior Tory MPs, including frontbenchers, said that Mr Letwin had “over-intellectualised” the main message, which should have been simpler. Two said that they would “make it up on the doorstep”, while several felt the lack of a specific reduction target for immigration was damaging.

And:

Shadow ministers have admitted that if there was a Tory victory it would not come with the same enthusiasm that Tony Blair enjoyed.

They have got that right.

Having been “over-intellectualised”, we will all wake up on 7 May with a headache.

It pays to be honest

After Brown’s jaw-dropping comments in the Commons:

CON 36%(-1), LAB 32%(nc), LDEM 20%(+1)

At next week at PMQs Brown will admit he didn't abolish “boom & bust”

What was Gordon Brown thinking?

He really did say this at PMQs:

I do accept that in one or two years defence expenditure did not rise in real terms.

Cameron, who looked astonished at Brown’s admission, responded:

In three years of asking questions I haven't heard him make a correction or a retraction.

Brown’s evidence to Chilcot will now have to be corrected, which presumably means he will have to return to the Inquiry.

And there was something else.  Cameron called Brown “weak”, invoking memories of when Tony Blair called John Major, “weak, weak, weak”.

Brown looked and sounded like a forlorn man today.

With his evidence to Chilcot unravelling, the strike and the exposure of Labour-Unite link, one has to wonder if Brown regrets not calling the March election.

“You can't unscramble eggs”

We will never know if Samantha Cameron voted Labour in 1997, but there are other wives of prominent politicians that have done the unexpected in the privacy of the polling booth.  Roy Hattersley reveals all:

His [Wilson’s] government had decided to let the people decide, through a referendum, if Britain should confirm its membership of the Common Market. After the Wilsons had returned to their ministerial car from the polling booth, Mary told her husband: "I couldn't do it. I just couldn't do it."

Wilson had voted for Britain to remain in Europe, and his wife had voted to come out. "He was very sweet about it," says Mary.

Asked if she still holds the same view, the best she can say about Britain's European destiny is: "You can't unscramble eggs."

Mary Wilson is “fiercely proud of her husband's record”

The Guardian pays tribute to Mary Wilson, wife of Harold, who attended Michael Foot’s funeral on Monday.  When the Wilsons occupied Downing Street she very much seen but not heard, although she did have very strong political views:

During the years that her husband was prime minister, the combination of her own temperament and the conventions of the era conspired to cast Mrs Wilson as a deeply private and almost apolitical figure. In some respects this image was accurate. Mrs Wilson always preferred poetry to the political life. At times of stress, she would escape from Downing Street to stay with friends, share a drink and have a good cry. Yet Mrs Wilson was and remains a lady of firm convictions. As she pointed out on Monday, she too was a left-wing Bevanite, just as Foot and her husband were. Less well-known is that she was also a supporter of the Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament. Only motherhood, and perhaps her husband's political interests, prevented her from joining the Aldermaston marches.

She remains fiercely proud of her husband's record, especially the creation of the Open University, and on her return journey from Foot's funeral took a diversion to see the blue plaque on the Hampstead Garden Suburb home that the Wilsons left in 1964. The sun never seemed to shine in their Downing Street flat, she recalled. Happily, though, it still shines on Mary Wilson.

Her actions speak louder than any views she may have wanted to express over the years.

BA and Unite: Enter Lord Mandelson

There is lots of noise out there about the BA dispute.  Contingency plans are being put in place and meetings are to happen with the comrades from across the pond.

Then we come to Team Cameron, who should be leaving the history of the Labour party well alone.  As Hopi Sen rightly says, “the Tory attack on the Labour-Union link is fundamentally dishonest – and worse, a political mistake”.

We will have to wait to see if the strike gets called off.  Due to the logistics involved, the cut-off to avoid any knock-on effects at the weekend is probably today or tomorrow at the latest.

Meanwhile, we return to the relationship between the Labour party and Unite.  At long last, the wait is over.  Patrick Wintour reports that Lord Mandelson has decided to act:

Downing Street has been forced to intervene to stop Unite, the country's largest union, parachuting more of its own candidates into safe Labour seats.

The move comes amid allegations inside the party that a covert operation is under way to ensure that senior figures in the union – one of Labour's biggest donors – win Labour strongholds.

No 10 took the unusual step of intervening in the candidate selection process following protests from senior party figures, including Lord Mandelson.

Not only is Mandelson attempting to curtail the activities of Charlie Whelan but also of Tom Watson, who was the ringleader of Brown’s plot in 2006, which forced Blair to announce that he would resign:

There is concern in some circles that Tom Watson, a former Unite official and minister close to Brown, is playing an influential role in selecting shortlists for constituencies where MPs are standing down. Watson is on the panel as a representative of the government, even though he is no longer a minister.

For the reasons we have discussed, this is very significant intervention by Peter Mandelson.  If he succeeds, and he will, it stops in its tracks the cunning plan that would allow Ed Balls to succeed Brown.

Presumably, he also working behind the scenes to get the strike called off.

We can expect events to move quickly.  Mandelson will not anything to get in the way of Labour’s narrative in the lead up to the Budget and the critical pre-dissolution period.  Then there is PMQs later….Watch this space.

Over and above all that, it is crucial that the New Labour project continues and the party chooses the right leader as a successor to Gordon Brown.

Peter Mandelson has to ensure this happens.

Dave, forget the union bashing

The early signs are that Labour’s internal difficulties with Unite have made no impact down at The Voters’ Arms:

CON 37%(nc), LAB 32%(nc), LDEM 19%(-2)

The Tories need to get back onto the policy agenda.

SOS message to Cameron

Dear Dave,

An amusing poster for those of us that are obsessed with politics.  However, the punters down at The Voters’ Arms have never heard of Charlie Whelan.  What they are concerned about is getting away for Easter, and why a holiday in Europe has become very expensive recently.  Have you any solutions to offer?

With respect, the future of the Labour party is for others to worry about.

Your immediate task for is to convince the electorate you have the right policies to solve our little local difficulties.

Yours

Events Dear Boy, Events

A unique election

From Tim Montgomerie:

This election is a choice between a party leader who is honest about the tough economic choices facing Britain and one who is fundamentally dishonest.

Question: Which future Prime Minister failed to tell the electorate that VAT would almost double; that there would mass unemployment; that the industrial heartlands in the north and Scotland would be destroyed; and that there would social unrest?

Tim is only 39. He is too young to remember.

Europhilia breaks out in the Tory party

Where are the Tory eurospectics?

Have they moved to Brussels? 

Have they gone native?

We should be told.

BA and Unite: Waiting for Mandelson

Few know what is going behind the scenes, but there needs to be some fancy footwork to resolve the BA dispute.  Planes and their crews can’t be moved around at the last minute.  If the strike gets called off at the eleventh-hour, there will be a knock-on effect.

We have already discussed the convoluted structure within Unite that makes a resolution to this dispute problematical.  Len McCluskey, the key union man, is very much a free agent within Unite.  He has the dressed up title of assistant general secretary, but in reality he's the head of Bassa, whose sole purpose in life is to represent the interests of BA cabin crews.  He also has another agenda:

The election to succeed the two current joint secretaries Derek Simpson (from Amicus) and Tony Woodley (from the T&G) takes place in the second half of this year, with the successor then running alongside Woodley until he retires a year later. The main leftwing challenger is Len McCluskey, the candidate of United Left. This grouping unites the recently merged progressive left movement in Unite which brought together Amicus's left organisation Unity Gazette and the T&G's Broad Left. McCluskey is backed by Woodley and seen by some as the candidate of the TGWU, although the charge is hotly denied. McCluskey, judging by his rhetoric, is no fan of Brownism.

Brown can spend all the time in the world talking to the odd general secretary, but McCluskey is the the one he needs to get onside.  That will prove rather difficult.

Lord Adonis, the Transport Secretary, said:

This is an industrial dispute, not a political dispute.

Well, up to point.  The truth is rather different; this is an industrial dispute where the political consequences could not be higher.

There is nothing wrong with Unite giving money to the Labour party.  The process, up to a point, is legitimate.  Unite pays its taxes and, dam it, the party grew out of the union movement.  As discussed yesterday, it’s what is going on beneath the surface that is highly questionable.

There is little doubt that Gordon Brown is using Unite to ensure Ed Balls becomes his successor, as Andrew Piece explains:

It will also be Unite that will help Brown fulfil the wish he expressed yesterday to fight on as Labour leader whatever the election result. If there is a hung parliament, he has vowed to lead Labour into another election.

On the other hand, if David Cameron prevails with an overall majority, Brown wants to stay until the autumn to try to ensure his chosen heir, Ed Balls, the Schools Secretary, succeeds him. And who is Ed Balls’ most trusted political ally after Mr Brown? Step forward, Charlie Whelan.

Brown, for obvious reasons, is attempting to put the lid firmly back on this can of worms.  But where is Peter Mandelson?  Apart from slumping himself down beside Adonis in the Lords yesterday, he has not been very visible in recent days.

As one of the architects of the New Labour project, and having the sole responsibility for keeping Brown in office last June, Mandelson needs to act to ensure that the party doesn't turn into itself.  Perhaps it is too late.

The polls: Is Sam Cam working?

The Tories take two steps forward with polls taken before Nick Clegg’s speech and Samantha Cameron’s interview:

Opinium: CON 39%(+2), LAB 28%(-2), LDEM 16%(nc)

ICM: 40%(+2), LAB 31%(nc), LDEM 20%(-1)

Now, the YouGov tracker poll taken after both events:

CON 37%(nc), LAB 32%(-1), LDEM 21%(+4)

Nick Clegg gets a boost but nothing for Sam Cam.

Just as significant is the analysis of the ICM poll:

Voters remain unconvinced by the Conservative alternative, with 29% thinking a clear Tory victory would be best. Only 18% think Britain would be best served by a strong Labour win this spring. Both groups are outnumbered by the 44% who want a hung parliament in which the government works with smaller parties such as the Liberal Democrats.

Nothing for Brown and not much for Cameron.

The electorate remain unconvinced by either party.

When Brown speaks it's all Balls

With thanks to John Rentoul, this is what Brown said on Women’s Hour:

Will you quit if you don't win a majority?

I owe it to people to continue [burble, burble].

Will you resign if you don't get a majority?

I'll keep going.

You will not quit.

I'll keep going because I want a majority. I'll keep going.

But, of course, it’s all Balls:

Will you quit if you don't win a majority? 

I owe it to Ed Balls to continue [burble, burble].

Will you resign if you don't get a majority?

I'll keep going.

You will not quit.

I'll keep going because I want Ed Balls to succeed me. I'll keep going.

Danger ahead for the New Labour project

It remains to be seen what the political battleground will look like on 7 May.  In the meantime, the comrades at Unite are quietly planning Labour's future.  Secret little meetings are taking place to parachute into safe seats candidates that will take the party in the wrong direction.

This not-so-small matter is picked up by Jackie Ashley:

It may be symbolised in a fight for the leadership between David Miliband and Ed Balls if the left wins. And if the central political agenda is all about public-sector cuts, then it's a final goodbye to New Labour and perhaps a return to a more traditional left-right divide in the Commons. That would be a Labour party far less likely to do some kind of deal with the Lib Dems; the centre-left could remain split. These may be really important arguments. The people who should be worried about Whelan and Unite aren't the Tories so much as Mandelson, Miliband and co.

She has got that right.  As the Sunday Times report suggests, there is little Mandelson can do about this march down the left-wing road.

To complete this beautiful symmetrical puzzle, ‘ministers’ have conveniently leaked to The Times that no matter the election result, Brown will stay on.  For the sake of simplicity, let’s leave aside what the voters will make of all this and concentrate on the Labour leadership.

After the election a coach load of union sponsored left-leaning Labour MPs arrive in Commons.  They need time to settle down before they start throwing their weight round.  For this to be achieved, Brown has to remain in post.  Meanwhile, Charlie Whelan is carefully orchestrating matters behind the scenes to ensure, with the support of these newbie MPs and his union mates, that his best buddy, Ed Balls, becomes Labour leader.

If Labour lose the election, then this cunning plan gets rolled out at the Labour party conference later this year.  If they hold onto power, then Whelan and his chums achieve the same result when Brown eventually stands down.

We don’t yet know what David Miliband is up to behind the scenes to stop this happening.  But Whelan, presumably with a thumbs up form his old boss, Gordon Brown, is sowing the seeds for Labour to ‘democratically’ elect the wrong leader and kill off the New Labour project.

Alastair Campbell becomes Cameron

Is this some sort of joke:

Alastair Campbell is playing the part of David Cameron as Gordon Brown rehearses for the three TV debates that could be crucial to the outcome of the general election.

If Brown looks at Cameron during the debates and thinks he is Alastair Campbell, heaven help us all.

Selling Dave

Sir Trevor McDonald is no Michael Cockerell.  The programme itself was glossy, manufactured and very superficial.  We all know Cameron can communicate, do empathy, smile, wave, crack a few jokes and be self-deprecating.  All the things Blair did so well but Brown can’t.  To take the mask off Samantha was a risk.  The problem is once it’s done the crowd will ask for more.

Now comes the hard tasks of proving to the country that the Tory party has changed; that Cameron has the right policies and he can be the tough guy.

At the end of the day it doesn't matter what us political obsessives think.  It’s how the programme goes down in  The Voters’ Arms that counts and whether the polls respond in a positive way.

Yesterday, the dice were thrown.  Cameron’s profile against Brown’s chat with a few undecided voters.

The presidential beauty contest has begun.

Missing Alan Johnson

On a Sunday the political world usually packs up at lunchtime.  On Mother's Day it’s all rather different.  This afternoon we had Brown’s little chat and later in the evening Mr & Mrs Cameron get an hour of free publicity, when we will have the added bonus of a live blog for a recorded programme.

Back to Brown.  He just doesn't do the empathy stuff.  He needs to relax more, smile and crack a few jokes.  There was no real engagement with the handpicked voters.  Also, Brown has this annoying habit of starting rattle to off his bulk standard defensive answers before the questions have finished.

The voters may want a tough guy, but they also want someone who can communicate.

So, there is much work for Brown to do in preparation for the TV debates.

How different it would have been if Alan Johnson had been sitting in Brown’s chair.  With the Tories making a mess of things, we would be talking not of a hung parliament but a Labour landslide.

The quote of the day from Gordon Brown

There is real treat in store.  Brown will be having a chat with group of undecided voters on the Politics Show.  He talks about the deficit and the budget:

It’s the chancellor who will make the decision not Liam Byrne or me… I’m not going to bind the chancellor before his budget.

We can safely roll our eyes over at that statement.

The life and times of Nick Clegg and the Labour leadership

The other day Nick Clegg produced a shopping list called “four steps to fairness”.  As we all know, the problem with lists is you may forget something or add an item that you don’t really need.  Anyway, he will no doubt  keep this famous document in his back pocket in the hope that he needs it on 7 May.  We move on.

Today, at the end of the LibDems overlong spring conference, Clegg is expected to say:

The party with the strongest mandate from voters will have the moral authority to be the first to seek to govern.

Just what does Clegg mean by “the strongest mandate”.  Seats or voters?  Anyway, “moral authority” is just nonsense.  If there is a hung parliament, Brown, as the incumbent Prime Minister, has the right to see if can form a government and get his legislation through the Commons.  And, of course, with other minor parties out there, he could attempt to do this with or without LibDem support.

However, if Labour do find that they do have to knock on the LibDems door, Clegg has made already made it crystal clear that he will not work with Gordon Brown.

We have already suggested a solution is this small matter.  Now, Andrew Rawnsley raises the subject:

Some of his [Clegg’s] most senior colleagues believe they would be crucified by much of the media and subsequently immolated by the voters if they try to sustain Gordon Brown in office after he had been rejected by the country. There is interest in the idea, first floated in this space some months ago, of sustaining a Labour government on condition that there was a new prime minister. Step forward, say, Alan Johnson with his long-term commitment to changing the voting system. But there are formidable obstacles in the way of such a deal – not least the likely reluctance of Gordon Brown to go gently into the night.

Hmmm.  If Labour do hold the largest number of seats, Brown can go out on a high.  Besides, Peter Mandelson’s patience may very snap if Our Dear Leader becomes the obstacle to Labour remaining in power.

If we assume that Clegg doesn't make a mess of things in the weeks ahead, and the polls continue to indicate a hung parliament, then the Labour leadership issue is going to surface during the final stages of the campaign.

Labour have the momentum behind them at present and have a more plausible strategy, but they will have to come up with answers to the leadership question.  Not least because it may every well influence how the electorate cast their votes.

Keeping the patient happy

Just as interesting as the topline figures in the YouGov and ICM polls are the other findings.

YouGov:

The most worrying finding in the poll for the Tories is that voters appear to have taken the austerity message of George Osborne, the shadow chancellor, at face value on both taxes and public spending. Asked which of the two main parties would raise taxes most after the election, 37% named the Tories against 26% for Labour. When asked a similar question about cuts in frontline public services, 50% of people thought the Tories would cut more, compared with 14% for Labour.

ICM:

The poll shows Mr Cameron is more trusted than Mr Brown to deliver on the NHS (by two per cent), schools (by seven per cent) and the economy (by three per cent).

However, in January his leads were eight per cent, 12 per cent, and seven per cent respectively.

So, Labour is gaining traction on the big ticket items.  Their simple message is getting though.  But wait, other goodies are being tossed up in the air.

Suddenly, Lords reform is pushed forward and there is the promise of another public holiday.  Then it’s discovered that Darling has saved himself some money, which will give Brown further ammunition to create his famous dividing lines in the Budget.

Finally, Yvette Cooper is out and about pushing forward ‘family friendly’ policies:

The minister will promise that from later this year, every time a new full-time vacancy is advertised in a job centre, the employer will be asked if the position can be instead offered part-time, as a job-share or another variant of flexible working.

It’s all part of setting the agenda (which the Tories are failing to do), enticing the voters to look again at Labour and keeping the patent happy this side of the election.

The concern for the Tory party is that Labour’s strategy, if the polls are the judge, is working.

Sam Cam: “I'm not really interested” plus…

David Cameron mentions to Sir Trevor McDonald about the time he had to disrupt a family holiday to meet Obama.  On his return, he attempts to tell Samantha all about it:

I said it’s amazing I’ve met Barack Obama, great man. She said, you know I’m not really interested — that one needs his nappy changed, that one needs to get dressed, now will you get on with it? I’ve driven the whole way down to Devon and you’ve been swanning around with this guy, so can you please do your bit?

Robert Harris, the author, recalls meeting Mrs Cameron:

She is sparky and fun but she speaks her mind, which could make her a loose cannon. When I met her at a dinner recently she launched a great attack on non-doms. She may not be on message in the way they need her to be.

Not posh.  Just candid.

Who is she talking about?

Janet Daley:

Once voters decide that a party leader is not the person they want to see in Downing Street, nothing that the party does or says will make much difference.

Surely, it Gordon that she is referring to?

I fear that in Mr Cameron's case, they may reach that point – however pleasant and "nice" they find him as a man. Is he too indecisive, too lacking in resolve or conviction, not made of the right stuff to cope with the economic crisis.

Her point is similar to the one that Simon Schama made during that imaginary telephone conversation.

Is this view is cutting through down at The Voters’ Arm?  If it is, then we will get five more years of Gordon Brown.

Tory chaos reaches the railways

Christian Woolmar, one of the leading commentators on all matters rail, starts off:

So much happening all bunched together, that I have had no time to blog - how do those professional bloggers do it, and earn their living as well?

Then we come to his attempts to interface with Tory party over the high speed rail announcement:

My recent dealings with the Tories confirms that they are in a real mess. I was asked by the New Statesman to do a big set piece interview with Theresa Villiers for a pre-election issue. I then proceeded to ring her office every day for a week, left messages but never received a call back. I was then given the name of a press officer at Central Office who, again, never returned my calls and then decided to turn the interview request down but when I pressed him as to the reason, it was clear that he had never even asked her.

While conceivably the Tories might be reluctant to talk to a left of centre magazine, one would have thought that they would have enough confidence about their ideas to give the interview. It might even have got them some publicity. But worse was the incompetence. For it to take more than two weeks, and about 15 phone calls for me to get an answer out of them suggests they really have no idea.

Woolmar is not alone with his comments on how the Tories have handled this important but non-political announcement.

Tory poster fail (again)

This is obviously a poster for The Big Brain Society.

Explanations on a postcard, please.

BA strike: The return of beer and sandwiches

With precision timing along comes an industrial dispute that Brown must navigate his way through.  It’s not just the BA strike and the timing that is the problem, but the reaction of more than a few voters.  The last thing Brown will want is for the union comrades to be hogging the headlines this side of the budget, in the run up to the dissolution and during the campaign itself.

Unite is not a well oiled machine.  It has two general secretaries with different agendas.  There are factions and unions within unions inside this great empire that don’t exactly rub along.  Then there is Len McCluskey, who is leading the negotiations with BA, and has ambitions to be general secretary one day.  In a nutshell, the organisational structure is rather a mess, not to mention the competing egos and rivalries that exist. 

Within this unhappy band of brothers also sit Jack Dromey (husband of Harriett Harman), deputy general secretary, and Charlie Whelan, political director, who is close to Brown and will have a key role in the election campaign.  No doubt they are working hard behind the scenes to resolve matters, but it is doubtful they will be able to achieve much, hence their muted response to this ‘little local difficulty’.

Now let’s tip into this unsavoury mix a few added ingredients; the incompetent BA management; the inability of the TUC to take any positive action to date; and Labour's dependency on Unite’s money.

Whichever way you look, Brown is left with a headache that will not go away.  What to do?

Step forward one Harold Wilson.  When the odd industrial dispute surfaced, the master tactician would invite his union comrades in for a late night chat. Over ‘beer and sandwiches’ a deal would be stitched up.

The union barons, these days, are accustomed to a higher standard of food and beverage, but Brown may have to deploy one of Wilson’s old tricks to get this dispute resolved.

Whether he does it privately or publically remains to be seen.  However, should it come to this and Brown succeeds, then he will have shown leadership and be able to take the credit.

At the end of the day, Gordon Brown has to ensure that this strike is called off.

How to wrong foot the Tories

Simon Heffer has obviously come to the conclusion that his message of two weeks ago didn't get though, so he repeats it again:

There is one money-saving move Mr Darling could take in the Budget that would cut the Tory party off at the knees: and that would be to announce that he will not after all levy taxes at 50 per cent on the so-called rich. He would have perfectly sound fiscal reasons for doing this, aside from the political devastation this would cause to the credibility of a Tory party that cannot dare to promise such a thing.

Let’s call it one of Brown’s rabbits.

Brown’s temper tantrums: The cunning plan

Simon Schama, on Radio 4’s Point of View, wonders why the revelations of Brown’s outbursts have been exposed in such a dramatic way just before the election. 

He lets his imagination run wild:

Brrring brring... Hullo, Mandy? Alistair here. Listen, I hear there are calls for the PM to play nicey-nicey, if he's to have even a snowball's, against Dave?

Cut the scowling and growling right out. Lots of wee bairn kissing. Intensive retraining in smile-technique... And so forth. No, no, Mandy, don't agree with me for god's sake. You know what I think? Codswallop."

Call me a hardened cynic. But...

No Alistair, surely not!

As I was trying to say, call me Machiavelli but what I think the people want, when they get a close look at New Man for PM, is a bit of the Old Man. It's tough out there and no-one trusts a Sauvignon sipper when the going gets rough.

You're a granny, you're worried about your pension or the NHS. Who do you think knows what it's like on a wet morning in Macclesfield waiting for the bus? Smoothie-chops or the Incredible Hulk?

If I catch your drift, Alistair - and of course I may be attributing low tactics to you when none could possibly be intended, and if so I implore your forgiveness on bended knee - are you suggesting that Gordon turn on the rough stuff?

Aren't we the clever clogs? Been at the macchiato again have we? Not a million miles away from what I have in mind - if we want to win the election, that is.

What mood do you think the people who've taken a walloping from the, erm, downturn, are in anyway? Horrible that's what. They want to yell and shout, and throw plates - at the dog.

But they're British remember, and we don't do that. Some clumsy great berk stamps on our feet getting on the train and WE say 'oh.. terribly sorry'. Now what the people are waiting for is someone who'll have a bit of bad temper on their behalf.

I see. The tantrum tactic. Throw a wobbly, put the boot in selected rear ends now and again, and the voters will feel that you care. Very good.

Only problem, dear Alistair, is you know Gordon. He doesn't really do raving lunatic for Britain. Not his style.

Well, time he learned some bad manners. Throw his weight around a bit. Hell, I could give him a few lessons.

But dear Alistair, maybe you don't need to. Maybe, just maybe, there are those out there who feel they have been handled by the PM with - shall we say - something less than kid gloves? And perhaps, they might like to vent a little. For the benefit of the public...?

You wicked old...

Now, now Alistair. Pot calling the kettle macchiato I think.

Right, you've outdone yourself. Let me at it. It's LEAK time. The Campbell is coming, tra-la tra-la. See you, bad boy.

Cheery by, tough stuff. A pleasure doing business with you as always.

Schama wonders:

It couldn't have been like that could it, fellow-voters? Nah. Perish the thought?

And:

But even if it wasn't, the "boo-hoo he's such a bully, treats people like dirt" tactic of his opponents has misfired.

 

Note: The BBC spells Campbell’s name incorrectly.  Alistair belongs to Darling, who wasn't part of the conversation.

Gordon Brown hits the hustings

Gordon Brown practising his cuddling technique on Nicolas Sarkozy.

Warning to all mothers: Your babies will be next.

Exposed: How the Tories will fight the election

As the polls narrow, the Tory party, which has had four years to get its act together, finally reveal how they will take on the might of Labour’s election machine:

Over coming weeks there will be a concerted campaign to ensure there is no doubt, in the minds of journalists as well as voters, that the Conservatives are the party of deficit reduction while Labour are the party that got us into this mess. Cameron will be presented as the straight-talker to the nation. Brown as the leader who borrowed too much, who has wasted taxpayers' money and who failed to regulate the banks.

The party is also ready to move on to the offensive on Labour's dependence on the union movement. Labour will be presented as in the pockets of public sector union interests.

Coulson and Hilton report directly to George Osborne who is now in full charge of the campaign. Ken Clarke will fill the gap by being more of the public face for Conservative economic policy.

How kind of Tim Montgomerie.  Mandelson & Co. will be most grateful for this information.

The Budget and the election timetable: Is Brown breeding rabbits?

Lowering expectations ahead of the budget was the little task that Labour successfully carried out yesterday.  First, Liam Byrne is interviewed on the Daily Politics:

His central message: Labour would not have to raise taxes further -- other than those tax rises already announced and in the pipeline -- to meet its target of cutting the budget deficit in half by 2014.

He specifically ruled out a rise in VAT after the election, saying the upcoming increase in National Insurance would be enough to do the job.

And:

The Chief Secretary said there would be "no big giveaway" come Budget Day.

Then, Alistair Darling rams home the message:

I don't think anyone's expecting some sort of Christmas-tree-of-a-Budget. They're not going to get anything like that. What you're going to get is a sensible Budget, a Budget for the times in which we live, a Budget for the future of the country.

Hmmm.  This is all obvious stuff.  Everything is under control; Labour have a plan; keep the patient happy this side of the election; and don’t frighten the voters about the horrors to come.

Now let’s move to the expected election timetable, which the BBC website sets out.  Again, as polling day is certain to be 6 May, it’s all rather obvious.

But wait.  We have to consider the mind of short-term tactical Brown.

It's not like him to walk down the path of the all-so-obvious.  He will want to wrong-foot the Tories with some trumped-up dividing lines on Budget Day, as well as sending us voters a few morsels to chew on.  Furthermore, there is no better way of throwing the Tories and LibDems election plans into disarray by seeking the dissolution when its least expected.

Be prepared.  Brown will pull a few rabbits out of the hat in the coming weeks.

Cameron’s little ways

Cameron appears to have more in common with Gordon Brown than he would care to admit*:

One candidate for a marginal seat recently drove Mr Cameron around his constituency all day on a recent trip, and was shocked that when he dropped Mr Cameron off, the Tory leader got out of the car without so much as a word of thanks.

This must be the same man who was provoked by few Labour MPs into having at temper tantrum at PMQs, when he should be attempting to behave as the Prime Minister-in-waiting.

 

*The quote is from James Forsyth’s column in this week’s Spectator, which is behind a pay-to-read firewall.

The polls: It’s the message, stupid

Today’s YouGov poll has the Tory lead narrowing to just 3%, while Angus Reed indicates a 13% lead.  The latter bucks the recent trend.  The clever people will work out what is going on.

Meanwhile, down in The Voters’ Arms, Labour simple message may be sinking in, as James Kirkup explains:

After Gordon Brown’s appearance at Reuters’ Canary Wharf base on Thursday, I spoke to a City type who also attended a similar event last week with George Osborne, David Cameron and Kenneth Clarke. For all the undoubted anxieties in the City about Labour’s (lack of) fiscal plans and all the doubts about Mr Brown’s own agenda, my financial friend was clear about which presentation he found more credible.

“Whatever you think of it, Brown looks like he’s offering a clear message. I can’t say that for the Conservatives,” he said. It was not an unusual view in such company.

It all comes back to the old chestnut of Cameron failing to have a strategy and a “sharp and simple” message that he can sell.  Despite Brown’s unpopularity, that is why the polls are narrowing.

To quote Alastair Campbell’s often repeated phrase: ‘The Tories haven't done the heavy lifting on policy needed to turn an opposition party into one of power’.

Brown and the generals: An “unseemly” business

On Question Time:

Was Gordon Brown’s visit to Afghanistan an attempt to distract attention away from his insufficient funding of troops?

Kelvin MacKenzie, former editor of the Sun and one of the panellists, responded in his usual outspoken way:

Brown is a compulsive liar, he has no truth in his soul.

Vernon Bogdanor, Professor of Government at the University of Oxford, has this to say on the war of words over the funding of the armed forces:

If the defence budget was indeed “unbalanced” and the priorities were wrong, the heads of the Armed Services cannot escape their share of the blame.

The heads of the Armed Forces are required to serve governments of different political colours. They are, therefore, constitutionally, in a similar position to civil servants. They are not entitled to express views on policy matters that differ from those of the government of the day; and indeed when Conservative governments in the 1990s decided to close military hospitals and to sell off service housing, the chiefs of staff, rightly, made no public protest.

It is unseemly to use the deaths of soldiers in Afghanistan as the basis for a personal attack upon the Prime Minister.

It is a proven fact that when Britain colluded with France and Israel at the time of Suez, Eden didn't tell the truth.  Neither did his Foreign Secretary, Selwyn Lloyd, who did lie to the Commons and went on to become Speaker.

In Brown case, there is no proof that he has lied.  Mackenzie's accusation could well rebound, with unforeseen consequences, on him and anyone else who associates with the remarks that he has made.

Intermission

A ‘little local difficulty’ has surfaced.

Action this day.

Have fun.

Brown: “What you see is what you get”

Brown, in his speech this morning, shapes the debate for the campaign:

I believe that character is not about telling people what they want to hear but about telling them what they need to know.

It's about having the courage to set your mission and the courage to take the tough decisions and stick to them without being blown off course, even when the going is difficult.

With me what see is what you get - and the stakes are high, we dare not risk the recovery for our task above all else is to preserve and expand the jobs and lift the standards of life of the British people.

We are weathering the storm. Now is no time to turn back. We will hold to our course and we will complete this mission.

We have got through this storm together, but there are still substantial risks ahead, there will be bumps in the road and I believe the only way to overcome them is by displaying the same strength and resolve that we did during the crisis and I will not let you down.

This is important stuff.  Brown is appealing to the voters who have already decided to switch from Labour and asking them to think again.  Whether it works remains to be seen, but this is how he going to fight the election.

And the Tory response?  They are going to have to be quicker off the starting blocks than they have been so far today.

From the sublime to the ridiculous

Daniel Finkelstein was on fine form last week, but not today:

Eighty two per cent of people think it is time for a change. Less than half say they will vote Conservative. The voters are out there to give the Tories a landslide, but the party needs to help them over the finish line.

No, Danny.  It will not be a landslide.

“Non-events, dear boy, non-events"

That is the phrase Matthew Norman puts to fine use when he says, “this election could have been all but settled long ago”:

If David Cameron had replaced George Osborne with Ken Clarke after the former's misadventures on Corfu.

Maybe, but this more accurate:

If the Cabinet had been something more than an exhibit on secondment from the London zoo invertebrates house and replaced Gordon last summer.

The budget date ends the phoney war of words

Gordon Brown’s speech and the expected announcement that the budget will be on 24 March, brings the pre-election campaign to an abrupt end.  It is all but certain we go to the polls on 6 May:

In the past few weeks Mr Brown, along with his closest colleagues, Lord Mandelson, Ed Balls and Ed Miliband, have considered the merits of an earlier election battle but rejected the idea. The improvement in Labour’s poll rating convinced Mr Brown and his colleagues that they can use the next eight weeks to eat further into the Tory lead and make headway in marginal seats.

Cameron, with attempts to show the Tory party has changed, along with the shifts in policy, the mistakes and misjudgements, has just a few weeks to prove that he can lead this country.  Dave had better be ready, because is going to come up against one of the most successful election machines ever assembled.

As for Labour, for all the reasons we have discussed, it’s a high risk strategy having Gordon Brown lead an election campaign.  It was Mandelson’s decision last June that kept Brown in post and it’s his judgement that will now be tested to destruction.

Nick Clegg enters this campaign with nothing to lose.  He has to perform well and ensure that the LibDems vote doesn't ebb away.  In the early hours of 7 May, this young man may well have to decide who forms the next government.

A clone of Shirley Williams

Adam Boulton is enjoying himself.  He describes John Kampfner, who has defected from Labour to the LibDems, as a “high profile turncoat” and a “public intellectual”.

Perhaps Kampfner could best be described as a male version of Shirley Williams, who also left the Labour party in its hour of need.

A hung Parliament: A quick fix or should Labour look to the future?

With all this hung parliament mania, we need to return to the not-so-small matter of what will exactly happen after polling day.  Since we last discussed this, the LibDems have been flexing their muscles.

Shirley Williams, who has to be listened to occasionally, was on The Westminster Hour saying (about 3 mins in) they will not join either the Tories or Labour in a coalition, but will support, in some way, whichever party has the largest number of seats.  Nick Clegg may well confirm this at the weekend.

Well, of course, they would say that this side of the election.  Once it comes down to the nitty gritty and they smell the leather chairs around the Cabinet table, matters could be rather different.

It is reasonable to assume that a deal with the Tories is out if they are the largest party.  Clegg may wish to go down this path, but it would split his party.  Cameron’s wheeze was to do deal with UUP, but the present activities on the other side of the Irish Sea have probably put paid to that idea.  He will just have to manage on his own.

John Rentoul suggests that the idea of hung parliament is a good idea in the present economic circumstances.  All very well, but 30 million plus voters don't call a mass meeting to agree this and then vote accordingly.  It happens by chance, not by design.

We come back to Labour as the largest party and the thorny issue of Gordon Brown, who the LibDems will not work with.  John Rentoul, in the another post, refuses to speculate on the leadership.  He argues “it all depends on the arithmetic”.

So we wait, do we, for the results to be declared and then have a tactical short-term fix that will neither do the long-term future of the Labour party much good, not to mention the career development of David Miliband.

The idea of Alan Johnson as Prime Minister with Miliband as Labour leader is surely worth considering?

Charlie Whelan’s little ways

Rachel Sylvester exposes the role that Unite are playing in those all important marginal seats and what Charlie Whelan is up to.  In 1996, when she become a political journalist, Whelan has far from happy:

I didn’t like what you wrote so that’s three weeks without stories for you.

Just what will Charlie say to Rachel today?