01 May 2010

The polls and Anthony King's magic number

For what it's worth, the consensus amongst the great and good at White Hart Lane (Spurs won) is that Cameron will get over the line, but there is no enthusiasm for him or his party.

So, to the polls:
YouGov (30th Apr-1st May) CON 35%(+1), LAB 27%(-1), LDEM 28%(nc)

ComRes (30th Apr-1st May) CON 38%(+2), LAB 28%(-1), LDEM 25%(-1)

ICM (30th April) CON 36%(+3), LAB 29%(+1), LDEM 27%(-3)

BPIX (30th Apr-1st May) CON 34%(nc), LAB 27%(+1), LDEM 30%(nc)

Angus Reid (TBC) CON 35%(+2), LAB 23%(nc), LDEM 29%(-1)

There was also an ICM poll of marginals.  It showed support in these seats at CON 35%(-1), LAB 35%(-2), LDEM 22%(+3) – so only a minor Lib Dem boost in these seats. These levels of support equate to a swing to the Conservatives of 6.8%, so just the swing they would need for an overall majority
Anthony King, who does know more than most about these small matters, had this to say earlier in the day:
If the Tories could somehow edge upwards from their present 33 per cent to 37 per cent, and if support for both the Lib Dems and especially Labour fell back, Mr Cameron could still win an overall majority - but his majority would be tiny.
John Rentoul has some interesting stuff behind the ComRes headline figures:
I have changed my mind about who to vote for because of Gordon Brown calling a voter a "bigoted woman".

Agree                  11%
Disagree              85%

One in five - 19% - of people in social group DE agree.  People in the north and Midlands are most likely to agree.
If King is right, then the Tories are almost there.  But will there be any 'unknown unknowns' during the remaining four days?

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