A number of points after being up all night:
- Labour and the Lib Dems may not have the number of seats to get a majority. Therefore it is likely that Tories will form a minority government, but Cameron will have to accept electoral reform, which gives his party a long term problem;
- It's likely there will have to another election within a year;
- Assuming Clegg will not do a deal with Brown, Labour can only stay in office if the public will accept another unelected Prime Minister;
- Labour has to look to the future. It would be better for the party to regroup and elect a new leader in opposition. It would then be in much stronger position to fight the next election. Mandelson has to take this into account if he is considering keeping Brown in office;
- One further matter. Clegg has said the party that has 'more seats and votes has the moral authority to govern'.
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"Assuming Clegg will not do a deal with Labour"
ReplyDeleteBig assumption. Thing is, the Liberals are a democratic party so the "Leader" doesn't get to decide on his own. Somehow, the Liberals will have to get a broad understanding of their own members wishes on the subject of power-sharing.
So, how likely is it that the rank and file would choose to deal with the renascent right-wing Conservatives rather than the freshly humbled and now desperate pseudo socialist Labour Party?
I agree with 1), it is very unlikely that a Labour-LibDem coalition would work, and if they tried it, it would not last very long.
ReplyDeleteCameron has enough MPs to form a minority government but not enough for it to last, so a coalition with Clegg could be better for him.
Clegg needs something to show for doing a deal with the Tories. He is wounded and needs to convince the LibDem MPs to do something they dont want to, so he needs the jobs that a coalition would bring.
Clegg also needs a platform to grow the party for the future at the expense of Labour. Being in government would give him this.
A Tory-LibDem coalition might last for longer than you think. Assuming that they need to make a start on cuts, they could get the unpopular stuff out of the way and leave enough time for the economy to pick up and find money for tax cuts.
It's nearly over. Clegg has just spoken. I am updating on Twitter
ReplyDeleteClegg just tackled the ball away from Brown and passed it to Cameron. The net is open and Cameron has proven his skills on the field. Only a foul by his own team can stop him from scoring now.
ReplyDeleteI give it 3 hours 'til it all unfolds. Cameron can't give the Lib/Dems what they want except by giving what he can't give.
ReplyDeleteI am on Twitter rather than blogging. It's nearly over. Clegg won't work with Brown.
ReplyDelete>>renascent right-wing Conservatives
ReplyDeleteThis shows clouded vision that comes from the muddied politics espoused by Brown. Cameron is a true One Nation Conservative, not a cross dressing Thatcherite. The team around him reflects his views pretty well. While there are arch Thatcherites in the party (e.g. Redwood, Hannan spring to mind), they are not in positions of power.
Paddy is doing a surprisingly good job putting forward the LibDem position. Hopefully he is respected enough in the party to keep them behind Clegg.
>>Cameron can't give the Lib/Dems what they want except by giving what he can't give.
The assumption is Cameron needs to give Clegg PR. I dont thing that is actually the case. They can fudge it so Cameron accepts some sort of electoral reform so that Clegg can save face, and/or they agree that the LibDems will continue to push PR in opposition but allow Cameron to govern as a minority government.
I'm fairly sure Clegg wants to stay Liberal Leader, certainly I've seen nothing to contradict that. If, after a disastrous campaign result, he can't deliver PR he is finished at the next party conference.
ReplyDeleteHe knows this. Cameron knows this. Brown knows this. 3 hours, chaps.
Brown's past has come back to kick him in the ass.
ReplyDeleteHe governed as a divisive dictator not as a coalition builder. He assumed that Clegg could be bought with an offer of PR. He asked for LibDems to vote tactically without offering Labour support in return. He thinks that power is his right, not something that has to be earned.
Brown is an arrogant bully, and the country (and his party) will be infinitely better off without him.
Reasons why the LibDems will replace Labour as the party of the left #37. The LibDems can put Paddy on TV, Labour have to rely on Neil Kinnock.
ReplyDeleteNot without PR they won't...
ReplyDeleteJim, a deal with Brown is not possible because of the numbers. I think that as long as Clegg can show something from the deal he will be OK.
ReplyDeleteThe LibDem losses were caused by a Tory-Labour squeeze. Could anybody have done any better than Clegg in that situation? Hune would never have shone as brightly as Clegg did in the debates. Cable would have been a total disaster....
If Cameron offered an open vote on PR in the HOC he could well win it with support from Labour MPs.
ReplyDeleteIt could also get held up in the HOL if it was put in a combined elected HOL bill.
The question is could Cameron get his seat reassignment and reduction to 500 MPs through, presumably on the same free vote basis.
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/thetorydiary/2010/05/there-will-be-a-majority-in-this-house-of-commons-in-favour-of-first-past-the-post.html
Reasons why the LibDems will replace Labour as the party of the left #38.
ReplyDeleteJack Dromey MP
Are we still in the 70's? I thought the dinosaurs were extinct, but they were just hibernating.
Sounds like Brown is trying to go over Clegg's head to appeal to the LibDems.
ReplyDeleteNot a good way to get a coalition going.
Like Cleggy has a clue. Clegg and his attempt to dictate who should lead another party. Pfff.
ReplyDelete>Like Cleggy has a clue. Clegg and his attempt to dictate who should lead another party. Pfff
ReplyDeleteThe Clegg we saw before the election, I agree, although if it was a tactic to destabalize Labour it was clever.
The Clegg we saw this morning, not so sure. Like Michale Howard says, he appeared very statesman like.
"Getting on with the job"
ReplyDelete"I agree with Nick" ... as long as I can keep my job.
There you go, Brown promises immediate PR legislation, while also confirming no Public Sector cuts for the rest of the fiscal. Thats got to be more appealing to Liberals than the complete opposite from the Conservatives.
ReplyDeleteInside 3 hours also. ;)
Typical divisive Brown.
ReplyDeleteClegg: "I'll work with Cameron"
Brown: "Work with Cameron if you want to, but I'll make sure your party hates you"
Brown does #10
ReplyDeleteCameron does West Wing