Daniel Hannan has had a thought

On the back of Brown’s ‘I want your sympathy’ interview yesterday, the number of theories on how our failed leader could depart the scene grows this morning.

First, we have Simon Walters in the Mail on Sunday visiting a route which some of us have already trodden, all which has been denied by Downing Street.  To counter this, the NOTW has a further interview with Brown attempting to be Churchillian:

It is because of my purpose in politics that I'm determined to lead Labour to the next general election. We must and will win.

Secondly, we have the far more interesting take on possible future developments for us Brown watchers.  Here is one Daniel Hannan in the Sunday Telegraph.  He starts off:

But his [Mandy] first allegiance, these days, is to Brussels. There is no other way to explain his behaviour over the past month.

When you have thought about this remarkable statement, we will continue.  Ready.  Hannan then launches forth about why Mandy did not throw Brown overboard:

So what the devil is he playing at? Viewed from the Westminster lobby, it seems an impenetrable mystery. From the perspective of Brussels, though, the answer is obvious. European Commissioners are obsessed with the need to keep David Cameron at bay until the Lisbon Treaty is ratified.

You see, the Conservative leader has promised a referendum on Lisbon – and, unlike the other two party leaders, he means it. He has even instructed his lawyers to draw up the Bill in advance, so that he could introduce it on his first day in office. Eurocrats are understandably determined to keep the Tory leader out until after the second Irish referendum in October. (There is a universal, if somewhat insulting, assumption in Brussels that the Irish will roll over this time.) Mandelson is their agent, their man in Westminster.

You at the back.  Are you following all this? To continue:

If my theory strikes you as fanciful, recall Mandelson's interview in The Daily Telegraph last week, in which he spoke of the likelihood of a new challenge to Gordon Brown in the autumn. Why, having seen the rebels off a few weeks ago, should he positively invite them to have another go after the recess? Because it won't matter by then. The Euro-constitution will be in force.

That is it then.  After the Irish vote yes, Mandy sweeps into Downing Street and turfs Brown out of office.  His motivation for doing so being that Brussels would be as happy as drunken sailors to have Cameron as prime minister by then.

I understand that Mandy is making arrangements to have Hannan carted off The Priory Clinic for a few days rest.

The shocks of the day

No-surprise No 1.  Tony Blair urged Brown to hold the Iraq inquiry in private.  According to The Observer, we are being told to believe this:

Blair, who resisted pressure for a full public inquiry while he was prime minister, appears to have taken a deliberate decision not to express his view in person to Brown because he feared it might leak out.

Instead, messages on the issue were relayed through others to Sir Gus O'Donnell, the cabinet secretary, who conveyed them to the prime minister in the days leading up to the announcement of the inquiry last week.

No-surprise No 2.  It has all been denied by Downing Street

Prepare yourself for further U-turns before the Commons debates the issue on Wednesday.  We wouldn't want our Dear Leader to suffer a further humiliation whilst he seeks our the sympathy vote.

The Iraq inquiry: Listen up

To those who do not believe there should be another Iraq inquiry, think it should be held in private or there is little more to learn, listen to this discussion (starts about 3min 10 secs) between Lord Butler and Peter Hennessy. The latter being the leading authority and historian on post war British government.

Enough said.

Mandy in another world

On this jaw-dropping Saturday, Mandy has spoken about the expenses scandal.  In an interview with BBC World, he said it was "inevitable" that the police would become involved.

If there is wrongdoing it needs to be investigated. That's how we do things in Britain.

Remind me, is this the same Mandy who borrowed £373,000 from Geoffrey Robinson and then conveniently forgot to declare the loan as an interest or tell his building society.  No investigation followed.

That’s how we do things where Mandy is involved.

Cameron and Blair: The new deal

Peter Oborne deals with the Tory splits on Europe and then he gets on to the matter of Blair, Cameron and the EU presidency:

Cameron has been silent on the Blair candidacy. Many Conservatives fear that this is because a deeply cynical deal has been struck.

It works like this: Cameron has pledged to do nothing that would damage Blair's chances; while Blair himself has agreed not to speak out and join the Labour campaign to prevent Cameron getting into Downing Street. This remarkable non-aggression pact has advantages for both sides.

Cameron strategists-believe that Labour has a better chance of recovery if Blair comes out and supports his embattled successor. Instead, they want to keep him out of the fray and see Brown struggle on  -  and lose  -  on his own.

As for Blair, he is acutely aware that his chances of becoming European President would be torpedoed if David Cameron, seen by all European leaders as the next British prime minister, sent out strong signals that his presidency would be unacceptable to a Tory government.

Fanciful stuff, especially as Brown has ready indicated that he would back Blair for the job.  In reality, if Mandy needs Blair to support Brown at the election, then that is exactly what will happen.

Perhaps The Times would like like to flush out the anonymous source of this particular theory rather than waste time on the harmless Nightjack.

Brown has become ridiculous

Brown has found time to give a lengthy interview to the Guardian.  These jaw-dropping comments were made earlier this month during two long conversations in Downing Street.

From the man that has spend his whole political life undermining friend and foe in his quest to become prime minister:

To be honest, you could walk away from all of this tomorrow." (He often says "you" to distance himself from the intended "I".) "I'm not interested in what accompanies being in power. It wouldn't worry me if I never returned to any of those places - Downing Street, Chequers. That would not worry me at all. And it would probably be good for my children.

Clearly, he should realise that he should not be prime minister in the 24/7 media age.  Note the last phrase:

Look, find weaknesses in me, criticise me for my weaknesses - I'm not as great a presenter of information or communicator as I would like to be - but the one thing people should not say is that I'm surrounded by some group of conspirators.

Moving on to the big fact lie that he does not text.  See here:

"When Damian McBride made a mistake, he was out. He made a mistake and he had to go." But he was notorious for sending abusive texts to journalists. "I didn't know that. I didn't know that. It's not what I do. Anyway, I don't text. But when that behaviour was discovered: out! Gone! Away! No longer working for me. And I think if you look at the people who work in our office ... it's people who've come from charities, academic life, business ..."

Another lie about public expenditure:

But won't everyone have to cut public spending, as governments are forced to tighten their belts to pay off debt built up during the recession? "No. It's a myth. Public spending will continue to rise. It's in our figures. We've costed it, and you're paying more in top rate tax to pay for it."

God knows what he and Balls were doing at the Treasury.  Plotting rather than looking after the economy that is for sure:

People did not know that British, German, Italian, Austrian banks were buying subprime mortgages from the States.

It will be the first quote that gets headlines.  What does he want?  People to feel sorry for him.  Clearly, Mandy and McBride’s (yes, he is back) new strategy is to go for the sympathy vote.

Whatever next!

In Alastair Campbell’s best interests

It speaks volumes that Alastair Campbell should wish to go into print and correct the record on what the Guardian and Indy quoted him as saying on the Iraq war inquiry.  Someone like him must get misquoted every day of the week.

It is no good him saying:

There have been several inquiries on this and those who are critical of the government's policy on Iraq will only accept the findings of any inquiry that says the government was wrong.

and

I then said it was not an open and shut case that the inquiry should be held in public, and added, as quoted by the Guardian, 'it frankly won't make any difference to them because they've made their minds up, these critics of the government, whatever comes out.

This stuff is just bullshit.  Campbell is the last person to pass judgement on whether the inquiry should be held in public or not.  He has a reputation to defend and obviously wants the whole matter hushed up.  Who wouldn't in his position.

Note that only people calling for the inquiry to be held in secret are the ones that have reputations to defend.

Brown has always said there would be a further inquiry on Iraq and of course it should be held in public.  All this crap about the 24 hours news agenda and lawyers is obviously the spin that Campbell fed to Brown.

I have been involved in two public inquires where people lost their lives and I have never once heard it raised that these should be held in secret because of role of lawyers.

The point at issue here is the announcement itself, which like so much that Brown touches was botched and a public relations disaster.

If you wish to get taken in by anything Alastair Campbell has to say on Iraq, you are either gullible or a mug or both.

Did Brown lie to the Commons when asked about McBride?

Following the story that Damian McBride has been operating again for the Downing Street, Alex Singleton has this:

Before Mr Brown appeared on the Andrew Marr Show on May 31, he discussed his lines with Mr McBride by text message. This surely puts him at the heart of Gordon Brown's inner circle.

Given Mr McBride's nickname - McPoison - isn't it time Mr Brown found a more positive source of spin? And doesn't it make the Prime Minister's attempt to distance himself from Mr McBride and his smear emails look rather hollow?

Singleton has missed a vital point.  At PMQs this week Brown was asked a direct question about McBride and denied that he was still advising No10.

If what is being leaked is true, Brown has some serious questions to answer.

UPDATE: This is what Brown said at PMQs.

Mr. Lee Scott (Ilford, North) (Con): Will the Prime Minister tell the House whether the Government have received any informal briefings from Damian McBride

The Prime Minister: I have not.

What would Attlee have made of all this

There is timely article today on Clement Attlee and what he stood for and how he conducted himself throughout his life. The piece is by Dominic Sandbrook and relates to a recent book by Frank Field.  It makes for depressing reading in the present political climate.

Perhaps some black ink should be put to good use and his well known quotes and thoughts pinned around the Palace of Westminster:

On Christianity:

Believe in the ethics. Can't accept the mumbo-jumbo.

How Atlee dealt with leadership threats:

After the 1945 election had been called, the Labour Party chairman, Harold Laski, wrote asking him to step down and let someone else lead the party into battle.

But instead of rushing to the lobby to brief against his adversary, Attlee merely sent back a masterpiece of understatement. 'Dear Laski,' his note read. 'Thank you for your letter, contents of which have been noted.'

His approach to Cabinet management:

On one occasion, he summoned a junior minister to No. 10, where the young man expected to be congratulated on the success of his department.

As he sat down, Attlee broke the bad news that he was being sacked. The minister was staggered. 'But why, Prime Minister?' he gasped.

'Afraid you're not up to it,' Attlee said  -  and that was that.

On being a good MP:

A man has to know his stuff; he mustn't talk too much; he must be good-tempered; not conceited; and be known to be a decent chap.

On Leadership:

Men who lobby their way forward into leadership,' he wrote, 'are the most likely to be lobbied back out of it. And a man cannot be a leader if he is afraid of losing his job.

Grown men, who know the score, do not want their leader to be continually beating his breast and advertising his agonies.

A leader 'must have guts. He must be ready to act swiftly, however much he has sweated about what is the right thing to do'.

He must be ready to 'make big decisions', even if they 'make him look a fool, or a coward, or a renegade'. And he must have the guts to 'sack people'  -  for if he doesn't, 'he won't last very long'.

And most importantly, what he thought was needed in political life:

First of all principle, secondly principle and thirdly principle.

I shudder to think what Attlee would make of the modern Labour party and the wider political class of today.

One Black Day in Brown’s country

If Britain has got talent there was not much of it in evidence yesterday. The cover-up by Parliament over MPs expenses was there for all to see, or, more to the point, not to see.

Other matters that were not blacked out:

1. A U-turn on the Iraq inquiry.  Steve Richards answers one of my questions as to who Brown consulted over his original decision to hold the inquiry in secret. I should has guessed.  One Alastair Campbell has totally misjudged the situation:

I am told Brown did give some thought to opening up parts of the inquiry from the beginning, but in the end he followed the advice of Alastair Campbell and Blair's other most senior ally in No 10, Jonathan Powell, in opting for an investigation behind closed doors. Both Powell and Campbell were involved in discussions that preceded the decision. In particular Campbell warned that parts of the media would become obsessed once more in the run up to an election.

Richards continues:

Brown also worried that an open inquiry would be seen as a snub to Blair. He had a long conversation with Blair last week.

Butler was right.  The Government are “putting its political interests ahead of the national interest”.

2. Public sector net borrowing was £19.9bn in May, and has already reached £30bn in the first two months of the financial year.

"The public finances for May were absolutely dire, deteriorating even more than feared as tax revenues continued to be decimated across the board," said Howard Archer of IHS Global Insight.

And Capital Economics estimated that the total public borrowing was now on course to reach £200bn, or 14% of GDP.

3. Retail sales volumes fell by 1.6 per cent in May.  The Office of National Statistics reported that total sales volumes grew by only 0.6 per cent for the three months to May – one of the three worst quarterly performances since December 1995.

4. And on a good day to bury other embarrassing news, Fred Goodwin has agreed to manage on a £342,500 inflation-protected income for life plus a tax-free £2.8 million lump sum.

Sir Philip Hampton, the RBS chairman, said: “On any measure, this represents a very substantial reduction to Fred’s pension and is an acceptable amount to all parties to the discussion.”

Rob MacGregor, national officer of the Unite union, said: “This decision will do nothing for the thousands of staff who have already lost their jobs in RBS.” The bank plans to shed 9,000 jobs over the next two years.”

As for our Dear Leader, he could take no more and left to attend another meaningless summit.

The Quote of the Day: Cameron on Brown

The PM treats people like idiots so they end up believing they are being governed by one.

Why Mandy will not move against Brown

A fascinating read in the New Statesman about the relationship between Brown and Mandy by Donald Macintyre – the much missed political commentator, who now resides in the Middle East for some reason.  He retraces the history of their relationship and considers whether Mandy will move against Brown:

This is not to say that, if an irresistible revolt materialises, it would not fall to Mandelson, as it did in 1994, to tell Brown how conditions were. Or, if Brown decided to go, to ensure that he withdrew with honour. But it looks much less likely than assumed that Mandelson would be prepared to wield the knife. And the personal reasons for this are at least as potent as the political ones: a commitment not to desert Brown twice and, at least as important, the resulting damage to his reputation if he did.

The former Labour foreign secretary and SDP founder Lord Owen is said to have reinforced this point in a recent conversation with Man­delson, as have others. Of all the twists in this melodrama of internecine strife that has so hobbled the Labour government over more than a decade, the strangest of all would be if it fell to Peter Mandelson to disprove Lloyd George’s maxim that there is no friendship at the top.

Couple this with the plotters inability to organise a coup and the lack of confidence in either Johnson or Miliband (discussed in the article), it safe to say that Brown will go on to fight the election, even if John Rentoul still thinks differently.

The Iraq inquiry: A U-turn there has been

Well, that did not take long:

The Prime Minister has opened the door for parts of the independent Iraq war inquiry to be held in public.

In a letter to inquiry head Sir John Chilcot, the Prime Minister said it would be possible for evidence from families of those killed in the war to give evidence in public if they wished.

But he also said that once Sir John had met other political leaders it would "helpful if you could set out how you and your colleagues think these objectives can best be met in the way that the inquiry is conducted."

The Prime Minister's spokesman added: "The question of whether the inquiry is held in public or not has never been an issue of any great theology to us.

"The Prime Minister is clear in this case there should not be an inquiry that goes on for years with all the lawyers and bureaucracy involved. But it will be up to Sir John Chilcot to consider how the precise format of the inquiry should be conducted to meet the objectives of getting to the truth.

And no doubt when Chilcot has met the other party leaders there will further ‘modifications’ to the way the inquiry is conducted.  Still, it would be good have the questions I posed below answered.

Nightjack revisited: Bloggers beware

I made my point the other day and did not intend to revisit the outing of Nightjack.  However, Daniel Finkelstein has come to the defence of his paymaster (News International Ltd publish his blog), which presumably lead to these reactions from Tom Harris and Guido Fawkes.  Both make valid points.

Of course, The Times and Rupert Murdoch have got an agenda in outing Nightjack.  Murdoch is a control freak and up to now the one media outlet he hasn't got his greedy hands on is the blogosphere, so he resorts to the law.

Now Dear Rupert has outed Nightjack, he won’t stop in wanting to control the blogosphere.

Expenses: Is Carla worth it?

While we all sweat over a mountain of PDF files, spare a moment for the goings on over at the Elyseé palace.  A staggering €500,000 (£426,000) a week is spent on food, wine, receptions, mail and telephone and electricity bills.  And moving Carla around the globe doesn't come cheap either.  Travel expenses for Nico and Carla are €300,000 a week!

How I would love to spend the day going through her PDF files. She is worth every euro.

The Iraq inquiry: A U-turn there will be

Our Dear Leader will have to prepare himself for a major U-turn.  Not only is there likely to be a major rebellion next week when the Commons debates the inquiry, but two peers who chaired previous inquiries into the Iraq conflict, Lord Hutton and Lord Butler of Brockwell, support that the bulk of the evidence is heard in public.

The Indy further reports that General Sir Richard Dannatt, the Chief of the General Staff, said the Government had not consulted him:

I was not privy to the discussions.  I am sure the option of part in public and part in private was considered and I think that that is an option that has got a lot of merit to it.

The views of Dannatt, Butler and Hutton can’t just be dismissed.  A number of questions should be asked.

Just what guidance did the Cabinet Secretary, Sir Gus O'Donnell, give Brown before he made the announcement?

Who was consulted and by whom?

Why is the former Cabinet Secretary, Lord Butler, at variance with the present one when both would be privy to exactly the same secret material?

Did Brown rush the decision before O’Donnell could seek advice and guidance from the people that should have been consulted?

What, if any, legal opinions were taken before the announcement was made?

The political consequences for Brown in having to make a U-turn are obvious.  Moreover, this could well further expose the way No10 operates under Brown and just how politicised his senior officials have become.

UPDATE: Butler will speak later in the Lords.  Nick Robinson has the details.  It is pretty damming stuff.

In fairness to Brown

There is no bigger critic of Brown than this blogger and I suggest that Daniel Finkelstein is being rather unfair in highlighting this clip of Michael Martin's speech.  Our Dear Leader has only got one eye and his sight is far from good.  Brown has to commit much to memory before making a speech.  Clearly the clip shows him concentrating on what he is about to say.  Enough said.

Balls is not a happy bunny

Looks like like young Balls will get called into see the Headmaster at some stage today.  He has said this about Iraq on GMTV this morning:

We ought to have tried for longer and harder to get [Saddam Hussein] to open up.  In my view, in retrospect, we should have taken longer to find the evidence.

And on the inquiry:

If you're asking my personal view, I'd prefer it to be as open a process as possible.  I'm sure the Prime Minister looked into this in great detail, but it's really important that generals, officers and ministers can feel they can come forward and give evidence that is "very open".

In other words Balls wanted the inquiry held in public, a view no doubt held by other Cabinet members.

And now for this jaw dropping comment on Brown:

He's a great leader in difficult times... He's the right man for now.

Balls is obviously unhappy that that he is not Chancellor.  However, he doing himself no favours in being critical of his leader and saying, ‘He's the right man for now’.  Mandy will be all over him.  Balls has much to learn.

One further thought.  It would have been far better if Cameron had gone on Iraq today at PMQs rather than use his 6 questions on the economy and cuts.  Cameron should expose Brown where he is weakest, which is on every subject apart from the economy.  Cameron's worst performance for weeks and he knew it.

Gotcha. The Generals aim their fire at Brown

Both The Times and the Indy report that there is a certain amount of disquiet in the Armed Forces with our failed leader over the decision to hold the Iraq inquiry behind closed doors.  Subrosa has posted with quotes from the Indy. 

In The Times Lord Guthrie, former Chief of the Defence Staff, fires off his own Exocet missile at Brown:

Although the equipment is excellent now, initially and subsequently in Iraq, it was very poor, and if Gordon Brown as Chancellor had been more sympathetic, it would have kept people alive.

Ouch.

Meanwhile there could be further trouble for Brown over his decision on the political front:

William Hague tabled a Commons debate for next week demanding that inquiry evidence be heard in public. The Conservatives will be supported by rebelling Labour backbenchers and by Liberal Democrats, who could force another embarrassing parliamentary defeat on Mr Brown.

One to watch.

Should Lord Guthrie or Hague need any assistance could I suggest they call on a certain actress to help their cause.  Ms Lumley is feel rather left out of the action of late.

Gordon’s favourite blog

In a brilliant tactical move ConservativeHome has highlighted a letter sent to all Tory MPs complaining about Team Cameron’s centralisation of power.

Good stuff.  Excellent work.  Just the tonic that Cameron needs on the morning of PMQs.  Well done to Tim Montgomerie.  A case of champagne will be delivered from Downing Street without delay.