04 May 2010

Labour just has to hope that its vote holds up

At long last Gordon Brown finds his voice and makes a passionate speech.  Unfortunately for him, and the Labour party, one swallow doesn't make a summer.  You can't fatten the calf on market day.

All the usual ingredients are there for the final hours of the campaign: the frantic travel to the marginal seats that matter; and the scare mongering.  Meanwhile, two Cabinet minsters have urged Labour supporters to vote tactically to keep the Tories out.  It's desperate stuff that adds to the lacklustre way the party's clattering train has travelled over the past few weeks.  Then, up pops Tony Blair at a garden party in Jacqui Smith's marginal seat.  Is this the most effective way to use Labour's most successful leader?

Who knows what the 46 million voters are really thinking.  Will there be regional variations when the votes are counted?  How will the expenses scandal play out in individual seats?  The voters want change, but will they move in a decisive way in David Cameron's direction?  What impact will the minor parties have?

In the crucial hours hours before election day, the polls lag behind as the electorate finally make their minds up.  They reflect a snapshot in time, and will not detect any last minute changes as the voters march to the polling stations.

At the end of the day, Labour has to hope that its vote holds up and tactical voting denies the Tories enough seats to form a minority government.

Until the fog clears early on Friday morning, there is little point in further speculation.  The only certainty at the present time is that this will be the last first-past-the-post-election, which will have major implications for the Tory party and David Cameron, if he becomes Prime Minister.

5 comments:

  1. Gordon Brown? Thats the guy from Eastenders, right?

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  2. >>The only certainty at the present time is that this will be the last first-past-the-post-election

    How do you make that one out? Cameron wont get rid of first past the post. What he will do is undo the bias in the seat boundaries.

    Who knows, maybe Cameron will let the SNP have their way and this could be the last days of Labour rule in London ever.

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  3. Cameron will not be able to contain the clamour for change after Thursday. Besides, he will not have a mandate to do everything his way.

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  4. There is clamour for change, but not for PR.

    Cameron would never introduce a system that benefits the other parties. Even if he tried, his party would not accept it.

    If Cameron is PM he will have a honeymoon period. If he is clever he will push through his planned changes early in the name of change. That should stop debate on the subject for a generation.

    If he forms a minority government then he would not be able to do this, but would continue with the existing system in place.

    What is the technical definition of a mandate anyway? Surely it is winning an election on a policy plaform. IE. if he wins then he has a mandate.

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  5. Cameron only has mandate if he wins convincingly and that is unlikely to happen. He certainly doesn't have one if he forms a minority government.

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