17 April 2010

Election 2010: A safe prediction

The evidence:

ComRes: CON 31%(-4), LAB 27%(-2), LDEM 29%(+8)

ICM: CON 34%(-3), LAB 29%(-2), LDEM 27%(+7) (carried out before the debate)

BPIX: CON 31%(-7), LAB 28%(-3), LDEM 32%(+12)

YouGov: CON 33%(nc), LAB 30%(+2), LDEM 29%(-1)

Prediction for 6 May:

We will all be able to tell our grandchildren we voted in the last first-past-the-post election.

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