23 January 2010

Ah, the marginal seats

As Valerie Singleton used to say, “Here is something that was prepared earlier

Now, Anthony Wells reports that there is an 8% swing to the Tories in the all important marginal seats:

The topline voting intention figures in these seats, with changes from the last election, are CON 40%(+9.2), LAB 37%(-7.4), LDEM 14%(-3.8) – so a swing of 8.3% from Labour to the Conservatives. In contrast the last ICM national poll showed a national swing of 6.5%, so once again we find a slightly larger swing towards the Conservatives in the Con-Lab marginal seats they need to win.


ICM also asked whether people trust Cameron or Brown more on various issues. Cameron led decisively on modernising the NHS, cutting crime, controlling immigration and improving standards in schools and united his party. Brown led on dealing with an emergency. On transport, Afghanistan, taxation, the recession and terrorism the two leaders were almost even.

And the question that needs to be asked again, again and again is: Why did the Cabinet fail to act on that fateful Wednesday afternoon?

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