Can the Labour party have a caretaker leader?

The DM/AJ4PM/LO committee may have to renamed at the end of next week.  Meanwhile, rumours have stared circulating about what may happen once Gordon Brown makes his intentions clear.  First out of the traps comes Iain Martin's take on what may happen:

I hear the name of Alistair Darling being mentioned increasingly as the interim option.

Whan considering any speculation, it worth keeping in mind the rules of the Labour party:

When there is a vacancy, if, for example, the leader resigns or becomes incapacitated.

When this happens, the Cabinet can liaise with Labour's administrative body, the National Executive Committee (NEC), on whether to appoint an interim leaderuntil the next annual conference.

This person does not necessarily have to be the party's current deputy leader.

However, if the party is in opposition, the deputy leader will automatically "act up" and the NEC will decide whether to hold an immediate ballot or to wait until the next party conference to do so.

As discussed earlier:

The dear old Labour party has to keep the show on the road, stay united and hope that their core vote doesn't collapse.  A lack of discipline from within the ranks before the polls close will just make matters worse for the exhausted comrades.  How the party conducts itself next Friday depends on whether Ed Balls holds his seat.

Enough said, for now.

The return of Tony Blair

Much has changed since the-three-times-election-winner gave a little speech in his former Sedgefield constituency.  Today it's reported that he will return to the hustings with a tour of marginal constituencies.

Is this such a good idea?  First, Blair's visit will become a media frenzy.  Second, it will eclipse Gordon Brown and any post-debate message that Labour wish to get across.  Third, it invites further ridicule for Brown and the party.

Tony Blair has left the stage and should stay there.  There is little to be gained by bringing him back at this stage of the campaign.

David Cameron is on his way to Downing Street

After three ninety minute TV debates the election campaign is almost over.  There is not much left to be revealed apart the weekend polls.  Unless they tell us we are living in another world, Cameron will be asked to form a government next Friday.

Cameron passed the test on Thursday by saying nothing.  Earlier in the day had been asked about the 'Gillian Duffy incident' and correctly refused to comment.  Then, it was left to Gordon Brown to close the lid on Labour's period in office, which he did twice during the debate itself.

First, he had this to say in his opening statement:

There is a lot to this job and, as you saw yesterday, I don't get all of it right.

Second, in his closing staement:

I know that if things stay as they are, perhaps in eight days' time David Cameron, perhaps supported by Nick Clegg, would be in office.

He must be the first Prime Minister to have conceded before the polls close.

What happened in between those two remarks didn't amount to very much.  Brown was negative and smiled at the wrong times.  Clegg wobbled, especially on immigration, but he had done enough during the first debate.  Cameron finally got the hang of having an election campaign in 270 minutes and for the first time started to sound like a Prime Minister.

The media narrative will now move from hung parliament mania to endless speculation as to whether Cameron will get an overall majority.  The challenge for him over the next six days is to transform himself, in a seemless way, from being an opposition leader to the country's next Prime Minister.  His first post-debate test will come when he is interviewed by Andrew Marr.

Like the 1983 election, the real battle is over who finishes second.  Nick Clegg is best advised to cease all talk of what may happen after polling day and concentrate on maximising the Lib Dem vote.  He just needs to smile, nod, wave and avoid any banana skins.

The dear old Labour party has to keep the show on the road, stay united and hope that their core vote doesn't collapse.  A lack of discipline from within the ranks before the polls close will just make matters worse for the exhausted comrades.  How the party conducts itself next Friday depends on whether Ed Balls holds his seat.

Let's hope that Gordon Brown conducts himself in a dignified way before he leaves office and his opponents allow him to do so, but first he has to negotiate his way through the interview with Jeremy Paxman.  The sad truth about that, as with so much else during this campaign, is that there will be few listening to what he has to say at the beginning of the long holiday weekend.

So, the ducks are nearly in a row.  Barring any unknown unknowns, we know that the somewhat tragic career of Gordon Brown is over and who will be our next Prime Minister.  Next Friday, we will find out if Cameron can walk alone into Downing Street, and which party he will face across the despatch box when the new House Commons first meets.

The day the political life of Gordon Brown came to an end

The first leaders' debate remains the defining moment of this campaign.  Yesterday was a car crash waiting to happen.  What came together in Rochdale yesterday lunchtime was the failure of Labour's media operation and further proof that Gordon Brown lacks the necessary skills required to lead the party, especially during an election.  The millions watching tonight, together with any voters he meets in future, will wonder what he is really thinking.

Brown's advisors and the those that provide his 'wrapping and packing' as he goes about the country have many questions to answer about Labour's shambolic campaign.  There has been no clearly defied strategy.  No central message that has hit home with the voters.

Take yesterday.  Why wasn't he told to switch his microphone off?  Who advised him to go back to the scene of the crime and have a yet to be revealed conversation with Gillian Duffy?  Why did he come out of her house grinning?  Didn't Brown know that the cameras were on during his interview with Jeremy Vine?  Would any of the any unfolding drama have happened if Sarah had been on the scene?

And all on the day when the party leaders should have been questioned about their failure to tell us how they plan to reduce the deficit.

It will take a herculean effort to put Labour's clattering train back on the rails.  The party does have a story to tell, especially tonight, but it's doubtful anyone will be listening now.  The 'Duffy incident' will overshadow the third leaders' debate.  And then what?  The wait for the weekend polls to find out if Labour's core vote has been eaten into.

It will be a calamity if Labour comes third a week today, which has to be a real possibility.  The cold reality is that the party may not be the 'official opposition' in the new parlaiment.

Gordon Brown and Peter Mandelson were very much the stragetic thinkers behind the New Labour project.  Both of them may well find that when the polls close they have consigned to the history books what they once created.

Whatever happens during the next week one matter is certain, Gordon Brown will not be able to continue as Prime Minister or Labour leader after 6 May.

Bigotgate: A word a of advice for David Cameron

Dear Dave,

When your opponent make a gaffe, remember what Harold Wilson said when the Profumo scandal broke:

No comment... in glorious Technicolor.

Best wishes

Events Dear Boy, Events

At a stroke, Gordon Brown produces the campaign's unknown unknown

From Sky News:

The Prime Minister was confronted by 66-year-old Gillian Duffy while on the campaign trail in Rochdale.

He spent nearly five minutes answering her questions and told her: "It's been very good to meet you."

He smiled at the woman and then got into a waiting car.

However, a microphone picked up his words to an aide as he drove away.

Mr Brown was caught saying: "That was a disaster."

"You should never have put me with that woman."

"Whose idea was that?"

Mr Brown went on: "It's just ridiculous."

His aide then asked: "What did she say?"

Mr Brown replied: "Oh, everything, she's just a sort of bigoted woman who said she used to vote Labour."

Alan Johnson is better than all the rest

Our man was on top form this morning:

There's a real sense with the Conservatives that in this 'big society' we just all walk around holding hands and walk into the sea singing Hare Krishna, and that's the way to tackle these problem.

If only....

Cameron's "failure"

Speaking this morning:

If we wake up on Friday May 7 and we find that we’ve got a hung parliament or no one’s got a clear result I don’t think that would be good for Britain. We have got to get to grips with our debt, we have got to the economy moving, we have got to make some decisions for the future, if we don’t do those things, yes it would be a failure, not just for the Conservatives, not just for me.

Up to a point Cameron is right, but his failure has already happened.  He and his party should have "sealed the deal" before the election was called.

Update:  Does he know the difference between debt and deficit?  If not, he would be well advised to do some homework before Thursday night.

Will Balls consign Labour to history?

Asks Matthew Norman in 1,182 words.  The answer is a simple "yes", but he paints an accurate picture of what may happen after 6 May:

For a decade and more, this greyest of eminences has stirred, fixed, briefed and bullied, first to remove Mr Tony Blair; and latterly in the cause – keeping his master in power – that has pushed his party to the edge of the abyss. If he has a political philosophy, it is the domineering, top-down, we-know-best, infantilising statism of Gordon himself, but it's not really about that. For Mr Balls, it is football thug tribalism – a with-us-or-against-us Manichean sensibility next to which Mrs Thatcher seems a proto-Cleggian champion of consensus.

The tribe, small as it may be, is incredibly dangerous for Labour. Leading the provisional wing is Charlie Whelan, who we're told is fixing the chieftainship by using Unite's money and influence to fill safe Labourseats with Blinkyite loyalists (or at worst pliable yeopeople). The propaganda operation is devolved to the amusingly slavish Daily Mirror, while in some subterranean grotto that enchanting smearmeister Damian McBride is said to be stealthily continuing the noble work that brought him to public attention.

If this gruesome cabal hardly strikes you as the A-Team, do not underestimate its power. With Labour traumatised by crushing rejection, they would mobilise on 7 May. Day after day the Mirror would run the Milibanana snap while rubbishing Mr Johnson as Alan Nice-But-Unutterably-Dim and Harriet Harman as a deranged old shrew. Spiteful false rumours about Blinky's rivals will seep through the blogosphere and Twitterati as Mr Balls postured as the great uniter while his Unite trolls execute his plan to divide and conquer.

This is the key point:

It will require every ounce of Peter Mandelson's will and cunning to frustrate a show of brutal, machine power politics to turn the least delicate of stomachs, and at just the time Labour would need to be Milk of Magnesia to a bilious electorate on the off-chance of a quick second election. Using the core vote as a Maginot Line, as Mr Balls would instinctively do, would produce a catastrophe more epochal by far than the one under Michael Foot in 1983.

The alternative, far preferable in offering hope of recovery though it is, isn't so peachy either. If Mr Balls thinks he is losing – and assuming that he manages to keep hold of his seat in Yorkshire, which is far from certain – he will threaten his rivals with a Samson Option civil war, because that is his nature. Fight us if you must, will be the message, but know that if we win we will destroy you, and if we lose we will bring the temple down to destroy you at the cost of destroying ourselves. It's the same threat that he and his compadres used to quell at least one Cabinet putsch, and if the Miliband and Johnson livers are as lilyish as ever, it might well work again.

If Labour finishes where the polls put it today, we are in for a staring contest doubling up as a game of ultra-high stakes bluff. To survive as an electable force, alone or as partner in an anti-Tory alliance, it is essential that Mr Balls reverts to form and blinks first. Labour's progressive forces must watch this Weeping Angel like hawks on the all-carrot diet. Take their eyes off him for a second, and he will send the party back almost 30 years to the internecine nightmare that so nearly obliterated it then.

That's the contents of one post-election blog post done and dusted.

The DM/AJ4PM/LO committee is very grateful to Mr Norman.

The fantasy election campaign comes to an end

Forget all the talk of a hung parliament for the next couple of days.  With exquisite timing, the IFS sprinkles a dose of reality all over the election campaign:

The IFS, which is independent of political influence, says that the as-yet unspecified cuts in spending amount to some £52.5bn in the case of the Conservatives, £44.1bn for Labour and £34.4bn for the Liberal Democrats – which are the sums each party will have to find if they are to meet their stated aims for deficit reduction.

They imply deep cuts in almost every public service. The Conservative Party figure is larger than those for the other two parties because it has said it wants to cut public borrowing sooner and faster, and that it would put less emphasis on tax rises.

The IFS indicated that even now, a week before polling, the public is not being prepared for the age of austerity that will follow the election, which will involve the largest spending cuts since the Second World War if the Tories win, or since the 1970s in the case of Labour and the Liberal Democrats. 

The patient, of course, must be keep happy until election day.  But in this anti-politics mood, a touch of honesty is required.  The party that has the most plausible and convincing plan to manage the deficit will win the the trust and confidence of the electorate.  At the end of the day, a mandate is essential for the pain that will follow after 6 May.

We can't yet predict who will march into Downing Street, but how the parties play the trump card that has VAT written all over it could yet determine who will win this election.

The only certainty is the size of the bitter pills to come.

Blair's back

John Rentoul reports:

Well, he's on his way, although it is not clear what role he will play in the election campaign's final week.

There are two things he needs to do:

1. Have a word with Peter Mandelson
2. Work a miracle
   

Alan Johnson "can talk human"

Jackie Ashley is right:

Inevitably, with the TV leaders' debates, this election campaign has been more presidential than ever before. And inevitably, given Brown's admitted lack of presentational skills, he was going to lose. So why have we not seen more of the Labour people who can talk human – like Alan Johnson, Harriet Harman, Tessa Jowell, Douglas Alexander and Ed Miliband?

So far it's been just the Gordon Brown and Lord Mandelson show, with Mandelson doing his best at this morning's press conference to prevent Yvette Cooper from getting a word in. Daft, because Cooper is an excellent communicator. Other key Labour figures complain that they havebeen relegated to local radio studios throughout the campaign, or far-flung constituency visits.

It's time that Peter Mandelson stopped dominating Labour's campaign.

The quote of the day from Philip Hammond

The Shadow Chief Secretary to the Treasury on the Daily Politics:

I don't think any party has identified in detail how they will reduce public spending over the course of the coming parliament.

At last, three weeks into the campaign, a bit of honesty from a politician.

With the publication of the latest Institute of Fiscal Studies report, we can now have a debate about the bitter pills to come.

Mandelson gives a lesson in 'how not to it'

The reports in the papers this morning highlighting the breakdown of discipline inside the party will do little to help Labour get its message across.  Then up pops Peter Mandelson with a 'how not to do it' performance at this morning's press conference.

Here is a party that is pleading with the media to move the agenda from process to policy and he picks fights with both the Adam Boulton and Nick Robinson, by refusing to answer their questions on public expenditure cuts.  If that wasnt enough, he then goes on to decribe Clegg as "slightly arrogant and started to exude the kind of entitlement that we have associated with Mr Cameron and George Osborne".

Mandelson is well-versed to the odd fall-out behind the scenes, but that's no excuse for getting on the wrong side of the media.  Then, to cap the session off, he had to reminded about the showing of the latest party election broadcast.

The obvious danger for the party is that they will now lose the sympathy of the media during the final stages of the campaign.  Moreover, if the party doesn't make a recovery in the polls and party discipline opening breaks down, Mandelson will become the story.

The press conference did nothing to help Gordon Brown.

The polls: Will the Lib Dem bubble burst?

The overnight polls, apart from the non-weighted Opinium, show a narrowing of the Tory lead.   A separate poll for the London area also indicate that 'Cleggmania' has taken hold.

If we travel back a week, Anthony Wells provides a useful analysis of YouGov’s regional figures following the first debate.

The picture could not be clearer.  Clegg has cut through to the voters, whereas the other two parties are continuing to misread the mood of the electorate.  The change that the voters want is not for the Tories.  The danger for Labour is that the Lib Dem surge will continue to eat into the party's heartland seats, together with their core vote.

The campaign and the polls are stuck in a time wrap waiting for the final debate.  Clegg will keep saying what is needed to maximise the Lib Dem vote while at the same time destabilising the Labour leadership.  The Tories will continue to warn about a hung parliament as they have little else to say.  Labour, meanwhile, will have difficulty moving the agenda onto policy due to the failure of their own campaign.

Will anything change between now and polling day?  It remains to be seen if Thursday's debate will change the narrative yet again.  The 1992 campaign was jolted out of its statement on election day, and it could happen again if voters defy the pollsters.  Under our present electoral system only fate deals the unlikely result of a hung parliament .  It doesn't happen by design.

What this lacklustre campaign needs more than anything else during its dying days is an unknown unknown.

The Labour leadership Part 4: Alan Johnson makes his move

To continue with the life and times of Alan Johnson.

His interview on the Politics Show was an important development, where he had this to say about electoral reform:

I support AV Plus, where you can decide on the local candidate if you want, one to four if there’s four candidates, and the candidate has to get more than 50 per cent, and you cast another vote for the party of your choice.

Not only has he been a long standing advocate of PR, but he must feel he is in the best position to cut the deal with Clegg.

Then:

I think it's a nonsense to continue to lecture the public about this spectre of a coalition government. I don't find that as frightening as some of my colleagues do.

Asked if he was referring to Mr Balls, he said:

Not just Ed. There's lots of my colleagues who are in a different place to me on things like electoral reform.

Clearly, he is only entering the debate in this way because of the rumours now circulating about Brown's leadership after 6 May.  These, of course, are being cleverly put about to counter 'the five more years of Gordon Brown' line.  However, as discussed, they do not go far enough.

Now, let's move to Martin Kettle, who argues that "Labour is incapable of removing Gordon Brown".  However, he forgets one important point; the role of Peter Mandelson.  Brown has only been allowed to continue because of his support.  Once that is withdrawn, as may well happen if Labour finish up as the largest party, then it will be impossible for Brown to continue as leader.

Without doubt, David Miliband is the favoured candidate to take forward the Blairite agenda, but he may not be best placed to lead an arrangement with the Lib Dems.  Alan Johnson, however, neatly fits the bill for the reasons stated above.

So, will it happen?  That all depends on Labour finally get its message across through the shambles of its campaign and, of course, what happens on polling day.

But two small matters will not change.  Clegg with not deal with Labour with Brown as its leader, and Cameron will not agree to PR.

AJ4PM committee alert: What is going on?

Has our little campaign been disbanded without prior warning?

The emeritus chairman of the AJ4PM campaign suggests that "if Labour comes second and is the largest party, a deal might be on" between the Lib Dems and Gordon Brown.

John concludes:

I do not know if Clegg realises what he has said, but he has now resolved an ambiguity that I thought he was keeping open. When it comes to dealing with the other parties, it is votes that matter, not seats - if Labour comes third in votes. And that means, in practice, that he will support David Cameron as prime minister unless Labour manages to scrape into second place in votes.

So coming second and winning is all right but coming third and winning is not. Does this make sense to anybody?

No, it does not.

Clegg is being rather clever.  He is attempting to maximise the Lib Dem vote, while at the same time destabilising Brown's leadership.  There is no way Clegg will support Labour with Gordon Brown in post, no matter what the result.  Not only would he lose credibility, but the electorate will not wear it.  That is crystal clear, the voters don't want five more years of Gordon Brown.

If the Tories hold the largest number of seats by a large margin, then Cameron is likely to form a minority administration.  Several reasons.  One, Clegg would not be able to carry his party if he cut a deal with Cameron.  Two, the Tories have the money and resources to fight a second election before they administer the painful medicine that the voters will have to swallow.  Third, it's not in the Tory party's interests to agree to electoral reform.

If the Labour vote collapses between now and polling day, then Clegg's dream is over.  However, it may not if Mandelson & Co face up to what needs to be said before 6 May: that Brown will stand down no matter what the result.

If that happens and Labour finish as the largest party, then Alan Johnson is in a very strong position to cut a deal with Clegg.

There will more on Alan Johnson after the break.

Alastair Campbell tries to have it both ways

One day it's a lack of style, the next it's policy.

On Saturday, Campbell's idea of an Elvis impersonator backfired spectacularly, then yesterday he attempts to dictate to the media how they report the campaign.

Ironically, both these little events neatly deflect from the message the party is attempting to get across.  Through the prism of the leaders' debates the media are focusing on policy, but with the opinion polls indicating a hung parliament they will, of course, focus on what will happens after 6 May.

Part of Campbell's and Mandelson's problem is that they are attempting to fight this election as they did in 1997, 2001 and 2005.  Then they had a messenger who could sell.  They only have have themselves to blame if, in 2010, the message is not cutting through.

The Labour leadership Part 3: It's time for action

After another wasted day on the campaign trail, Gordon Brown has given an interview to The Independent.  Invoking God will not get him very far:

How can it be a priority to give to people who have already got so much? It's not God helps people who help themselves', it's God helps people whom he has already helped'. That's what their [the Conservatives'] motto is.

He ploughs on:

People know that the fight is on. They know that the election is wide open, they know that the closed book that people expected it to be a few weeks ago is not where we are.

Eventually we get to the leadership question:

Mr Brown would not address one possible outcome doing the rounds in Westminster: that, in the event of a hung Parliament, he would step aside to allow a figure like Alan Johnson or David Miliband to be leader in a "progressive coalition" with the Lib Dems.

Asked if he felt he was bigger than his party, he replied: "No one is bigger than the party – no one, and certainly not me. [But] if you want to write about what happens after the election, you've got plenty of timeto do it after the election is finished.

"As long as the election is happening, we're talking about the policies.  I am not talking about all these institutional arrangements that so fixate people in London."

This is just not good enough.  Brown's leadership is now the central factor in the last stages of the campaign.  These "arrangements"  do more than "fixate people in London", they will determine the outcome of the general election.

Nick Clegg who will, if the polls remain as they are, play a pivotal role in the days after the election has reconfirmed he will not work with Gordon Brown.  Therefore who leads Labour, if they are to have a chance finishing as the largest party, has to addressed before polling day.  Parking the problem, that should have been resolved months ago, will ensure the very opposite that Labour is hoping for.

Having set out three options in Part 2, Labour has now to act if they are to stop support draining away.  With the polls as they are, Brown's wheeze of moving the agenda onto policy is not going to work .  It will disappoint Alastair Campbell but coalition politics will dominate all else.  The sooner that he and others accept this the better.

Labour's strategy, such as it, is has to dumped in double quick time.   Mandelson correctly spoke about Labour being the "underdog" in the period leading up the election.  Now is the time to act the part.  The party has nothing to lose.  Brown has to declare that he will stand down after polling day.  Then, if Labour do hold the largest number of seats, the Cabinet names a interim leader, which is allowed for under the rules of the party.

The party has to save itself from a repeat performance of the 1983 election.  It can only do this if decisive action is taken over Brown's leadership.  It's time for him to face reality and do what needs to be done.  The only alternative is to accept defeat.

Five polls and Labour's weekend

There are five polls out tonight:

Comres: CON 34%(-1), LAB 28%(+3), LDEM 29%(+2)

ICM: CON 35%(+2), LAB 26%(-2), LDEM 31%(+1)

YouGov: CON 35%(+1), LAB 27%(-2), LDEM 29% (nc)

BPIX: CON 34%(+3), LAB 26%(-2), LDEM 30%(-2)

But one is a rouge:

Ipsos MORI poll: CON 36%(+4), LAB 30%(+2), LDEM 23%(-9)

So, the Tories are in a slightly stronger position, the Lib Dems momentum has been maintained and Labour are still in the game (just).

Who knows what is going on?  Not Labour, that's for sure.  Yesterday's NHS rally was dreadful and to put the icing on the cake Alastair Campbell is off to the football tomorrow.  Would that have happened if Blair had been fighting for Labour's fourth term?