tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6905040611865595428.post3471313009492871469..comments2023-12-23T01:50:58.650+00:00Comments on Events Dear Boy, Events: The polls: The turnout, the share of the vote and Gordon BrownEvents dear boy, eventshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13027032420000802501noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6905040611865595428.post-59054205946362491392010-01-31T13:36:58.001+00:002010-01-31T13:36:58.001+00:00A few points.
I am not sure about a March electio...A few points.<br /><br />I am not sure about a March election because Labour is short of money and they would then to finance two campaigns. Also Brown will want to have a budget and as I have suggested he may have some spare cash to play with.<br /><br />Brown at Chilcot will be dangerous for him for the reasons you suggest. He may find a way to wriggle out of this before the election. We shall see.<br /><br />Then we get to Rawnsley's book, which I blogged about a week ago. My understanding is that it will be very damaging. It comes out on 1st March, just before the election is called or during the campaign if there is a March election.<br /><br />Either way, Brown is sunk.Events dear boy, eventshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13027032420000802501noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6905040611865595428.post-24469357884456871082010-01-31T13:12:32.673+00:002010-01-31T13:12:32.673+00:00My view is that this is trench warfare, a battle o...My view is that this is trench warfare, a battle of attrition, with Labour on the back foot and the Tories holding the high ground (to mix metaphors). Only modest gains or losses, usually reversed, are likely until the election is called or unless there is a game-changing moment. <br /><br />One factor is media coverage - I think there is a positive link between Tory/Cameron coverage and their polling performance. Political Betting, UK Polling Report, Bob Worcester and others have made very interesting comparisons between leaders in the run-up to past elections and Cameron's ratings are not too far from Blair's past ratings. Brown's are (as I seem to recall) worse than Foot's or Kinnocks! Other events have dominated the headlines - mainly Chilcot this week, so Tory coverage has slipped. It will be the election campaign that sees the most poll movement, unless there are any game-changing moments in the next month or so.<br /><br />Brown at Chilcot could be such a game changing moment, he will come across as shifty and surly, poor compared to Blair's performance (notwithstanding the hostility to the message!). But I think he may call an election before then, to have his cake and eat it, and to avoid Q2 growth (or lack of) figures as well.Jess The Doghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01694805454982688213noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6905040611865595428.post-40514778166720707072010-01-31T13:00:30.516+00:002010-01-31T13:00:30.516+00:00Accurate blog.
I really feel that the Tories are ...Accurate blog.<br /><br />I really feel that the Tories are most likely to win a margin of about 15 seats. <br /><br />There is a sense of inevitability about it all.Shibley Rahmanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10707965923019234923noreply@blogger.com